The Bottom Line

This forecast has a little bit of everything over the next five or six days. From mild to cold temperatures. From sunshine to rain to snow. From calm to wind.

I will do my best to guide you through the day-by-day changes, so you can plan accordingly.

We are getting better clarity and resolution on our next "big" storm system, arriving Friday. It looks like predominantly a rainmaker for New Jersey — which is great news after a very dry January. However, some icing is possible, so it remains something to watch closely.

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Tuesday

Tuesday will not be as nice a day as Monday. But it will not be terrible.

That is especially true for Tuesday morning, which is New Jersey's warmest morning since New Year's Day. Temperatures are in the 30s, so you will still want a jacket or coat, of course.

The problem with Tuesday stems from a weak cold front passing across the state. That will prevent temperatures from rising much past 40 degrees. And it will kick up a stiff breeze.

Actually, I would call Tuesday afternoon "breezy plus" with gusts potentially reaching 25 or 30 mph.

We will see some flurries and snow showers around Tuesday, especially to the north and especially in the morning. It is not really an accumulation concern, although reduced visibility is possible in pockets.

Some flurries and snow showers are possible in New Jersey on Tuesday, but little to no accumulation is expected. (Accuweather)
Some flurries and snow showers are possible in New Jersey on Tuesday, but little to no accumulation is expected. (Accuweather)
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Tuesday night, the wind calms down, skies stay partly cloudy, and temperatures will dip to around the 30-degree mark.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be warmer but also windier than Tuesday.

Look for gusts to potentially surpass 30 mph on Wednesday. Definitely noticeable. Once again, we'll see partly sunny skies. And high temperatures will reach into the mid 40s.

There is a chance for sprinkles moistening the state Wednesday afternoon. Maybe some snowflakes in far northern New Jersey, but I'm betting more on light rain showers (or nothing) instead.

Thursday

Thursday is this workweek's one and only blustery day.

A taste of arctic air will put morning low temperatures in the lower 20s, with wind chills deep in the teens.

Thursday will be cold, with morning wind chills potentially in the teens. (Accuweather)
Thursday will be cold, with morning wind chills potentially in the teens. (Accuweather)
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Highs will only reach the lower-mid 30s, with wind chills no better than the 20s. So not as bitter an arctic blast as last week, but unseasonable and uncomfortable nonetheless.

Thursday will be sunny and dry.

Friday

For several days, we have been watching a storm system aiming for New Jersey late-week. And we have pretty clear resolution on how it's going to play out — mainly wet.

Forecast models are painting periods of rain over New Jersey throughout the day on Friday, from early morning through early evening. The rain looks steadiest and heaviest over South Jersey, which could pick up a healthy inch of total rainfall.

We are talking about wet weather, because this storm system will carry some incredible warmth into New Jersey. High temperatures will end up on either side of 50 degrees.

There is one concern for Friday's storm system. The ground is pretty cold, after last week's deep freeze and this Thursday's chilly refresher. (In fact, some areas still have healthy snow cover on the ground.) So initial raindrops Friday morning could freeze on contact with cold surfaces, a phenomenon we appropriately call freezing rain.

Friday's storm system mainly produce rain over New Jersey, although some icing is a possibility worth watching. (Accuweather)
Friday's storm system mainly produce rain over New Jersey, although some icing is a possibility worth watching. (Accuweather)
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Honestly, it does not look bad enough to call this an outright "ice storm" — but we still have to be vigilant for icy patches and slippery spots on Friday.

Again, as temperatures warm to 50-ish degrees and rain continues to pour, any icing threat should go away by the afternoon.

The Weekend & Beyond

Saturday looks similar to Thursday — sunny but cold, with highs back in the mid 30s.

Sunday could get tricky, as a compact storm system drives in some snow. The GFS model paints up to a few inches of snow accumulation on Sunday — almost too-perfect of a picture though. I do not think we are facing a massive Groundhog Day blizzard, but this will be the next thing to way.

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Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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