Changing weather for NJ: This weekend starts great but ends iffy
The Bottom Line
Friday's weather story begins with crystal clear skies. This starry night has caused temperatures to really drop overnight, leading to New Jersey's first frost of the year. It also allowed New Jerseyans far and wide to experience the incredible aurora borealis Thursday evening — the Northern Lights.
Looking ahead, the weekend looks conducive to all your autumnal outdoor activities. Saturday will be a great weather day. Sunday looks iffy, with clouds and showers — but I would not let those spotty raindrops ruin your plans.
Monday will be the culmination of a three-day weekend for many. And NJ's weather in a word: Blustery. A strong cold front will kick up a strong wind, sending temperatures tumbling. We will enter a stretch of truly November-ish weather through the first half of next week.
Friday
Welcome to New Jersey's coldest morning of the season so far. A light freeze has been reported in the coldest corners of the state, around Sussex County and the middle of the Pine Barrens. Statewide temperatures are in the 30s and 40s. That means you might see some frost on the grass or windshield early on Friday. And you will almost certainly want a jacket or sweater to start the day.
Temperatures should warm quickly starting mid-morning Friday, thanks to perfect sunshine and dry air. Highs Friday afternoon should reach about 65 to 70 degrees. A few degrees warmer than Thursday. And all around, a lovely mid-October day. (Yes, it is mid-October now.)
Friday night will not be as cold, so frost is unlikely. Low temperatures will dip to around 50 degrees.
Saturday
What a spectacular day. I have upgraded our sky forecast to mostly sunny for Saturday, as we enjoy yet another dry day.
High temperatures on Saturday will surge into the lower to mid 70s across New Jersey.
No weather problems whatsoever. Enjoy this great, unseasonably warm start to the weekend.
Sunday
On Sunday, a warm front will lift through New Jersey, complicating our weather picture.
First of all, temperatures will be tricky on Sunday. Based on the latest guidance, I think most of NJ will make it into the 70s once again. 80 degrees will be possible for someone in the state. On the flip side, embedded in cool air on the other side of that front, there is a good chance that far northern New Jersey gets stuck in the 50s.
Second, that frontal boundary will present a couple opportunities for some rain. Showers will clip through northern New Jersey Sunday morning. And then there will be an opportunity for more raindrops later, in the evening hours. That late-day shower chance would be statewide. We're talking about spotty stuff, not a soaker. Rainfall totals will range between hardly anything and a quarter-inch (to the north).
Be flexible Sunday and Sunday night. I would not cancel any outdoor plans — just keep an eye on the forecast and be mindful of varying weather conditions.
Monday
Monday is not going to be a nice weather day as our next change arrives, in the form of a much colder, drier air mass.
It is worth mentioning that the exact timing of that strong cold front is uncertain. That will dictate when temperatures will start to tumble.
The current forecast puts thermometers in the 60s first thing Monday morning, potentially dropping into the 40s by sunset. A big difference!
Monday should be dry, with a mix of sun and clouds. It will be windy, with gusts potentially topping 30 mph.
Tuesday & Beyond
Given that new cold air mass, Tuesday morning could bring a widespread frost to New Jersey (non-coastal and non-urban areas, at least). And then high temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday will go no further than the 50s. That is well below normal for this time of year — a little taste of a November-ish chill.
Temps should recover late next week, into the 60s and possibly even 70s by the weekend.
As usual, there is no substantial rain in sight. And no imminent tropical threats either.
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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
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