County by county breakdown of Monday’s snow in NJ: What to expect

The Latest Update: Monday's Storm

Not much has changed since my last comprehensive post early Sunday morning. A Winter Storm Warning is still in effect for seven counties in southern New Jersey, and school closing notices for Monday have started to pour in.

I decided to draw one more snow forecast map for this final update before the storm arrives. The overall forecast has not changed much, if at all. I have really just made two tweaks here:

1.) Switched from five color contour areas to four. This is an aesthetic change for presentation and clarity purposes only. I think these ranges better communicate the specific difference between heavy, moderate, light, and no snow.

2.) Further compressed the snow total contours, as the gradient between no/light snow (to the north) and heavy snow (to the south) will be tight.

As always, I think I have produced a realistic forecast, an honest assessment of all the factors we have been discussing for the past several days. I believe this forecast has approximately equal chances of busting high (up to a foot of snow around Cape May County) or busting low (the storm shifts south, with only 3 or 4 inches of snowfall max in NJ).

As I have said, this is not a "historic" or "catastrophic" storm. It's snow. It happens in the wintertime here in New Jersey.

Reminder: This is primarily a Monday daytime storm. If you are in the southern third to half of New Jersey, it is time to carefully consider your plans for Monday. Travel conditions could get very sloppy for a time, especially through the late morning and afternoon hours.

The Latest Update: Saturday's Storm

On Thursday, my daily weather blog post was headlined Welcome to January - 3 snow chances for NJ in the next 10 days. Number one was the mini snow event in South Jersey on Friday. Number two is Monday's "South Jersey Special" storm. And the third and final storm in this sequence is still showing up in model guidance for this Saturday.

The potential for a significant winter storm is absolutely present — even more impactful than Monday's storm — and that is why we are already starting to talk it up a little bit.

There will be plenty of cold air available this week, making another "snow" storm more likely. And this one may take more of a classic coastal storm (nor'easter) track, which tends to produce strong, highly impactful weather. In addition to heavy snow (and rain), coastal storms are also capable of producing high winds (and power outages) and coastal flooding due to storm surge. Nasty business.

However, this is a 6-day forecast. Storm onset is about 132 hours away. No one — man or model — can accurately and precisely forecast for such a significant weather event this far in advance. In fact model guidance is basically flip-flopping every run between "hardly anything" and "OMG three feet of snow".

It is absolutely something to watch. But let's take this one storm at a time. Once Monday's storm wraps up, we should start to get a clearer view of next weekend. And then we will start to piece together scenarios with potential snow accumulations, timeline, impacts, etc. I promise, if Saturday's storm is becoming a "thing" for New Jersey, you will know about it by the middle of the week.

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County-by-County Breakdown of Monday's Snow (or Lack Thereof)

What follows is a summary of the timeline, potential snow accumulation, and warnings/advisories for all 21 counties in New Jersey for Monday's winter storm. (Note: This section is semi-automated via Excel, although it completely represents my forecast and my verbiage.)

Times are approximate, and only given to provide a rough estimate of when the storm will start, ramp up, and end.

Similarly, snowfall totals offer a broad estimation of the severity and intensity of the storm and its impacts. Blur your eyes a bit, because any little "wiggle" in the storm track could still cause totals to ultimately go up or down.

Warnings and advisories come from the National Weather Service, and are subject to change before or during the storm.

Atlantic County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 4 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - with the heaviest and most widespread snowfall - will be around the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 6 p.m. Monday evening. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 2 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... Solid snowfall is expected here, although *the* heaviest bands should stay to the south. Expect about 3 to 6 inches of accumulation across the county.

Alerts... A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. A warning means travel conditions will become poor, as heavy snow causes to slippery roads and low visibility.

Bergen County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 10 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. Most snow should wrap up around 4 p.m. Monday afternoon. A few flurries are possible through late Monday night, but little to no additional accumulation is expected.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be very light, with little to no accumulation is expected throughout the county. Maybe up to an inch if a stray band of heavier snow forms at some point.

Alerts... None.

Burlington County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 5 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - with the heaviest and most widespread snowfall - will be around the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 5 p.m. Monday evening. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... Conditions will vary from north to south across the county. To the north, forecast snow totals range from 1 to 3 inches. To the south, falling under heavier and more prolonged snow bands, the forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches.

Alerts... For the southeastern half of the county, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. A warning means travel conditions will become poor, as heavy snow causes to slippery roads and low visibility. For the northwestern half of the county, a less-severe and less-urgent Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. That is a formal heads-up that slippery roads are possible, due to light to moderate snowfall.

Camden County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 4 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - with the heaviest and most widespread snowfall - will be around the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 5 p.m. Monday evening. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... Solid snowfall is expected here, although *the* heaviest bands should stay to the south. Expect about 3 to 6 inches of accumulation across the county.

Alerts... A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. A warning means travel conditions will become poor, as heavy snow causes to slippery roads and low visibility.

Cape May County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 2 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - with the heaviest and most widespread snowfall - will be around the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 6 p.m. Monday evening. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 2 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... You will most likely see the highest snowfall totals in the state. Prolonged bands of heavy snow should push snowfall totals to 6 to 9 inches. (Some forecast models go as high as a foot.)

Alerts... A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. A warning means travel conditions will become poor, as heavy snow causes to slippery roads and low visibility.

Cumberland County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 2 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - with the heaviest and most widespread snowfall - will be around the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 5 p.m. Monday evening. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... You will be right on the northern edge of the "snow sweet spot" for this storm. The northern half of the county should pick up a solid 3 to 6 inches of accumulation. The southern half, close to the Delaware Bay, is forecast to end up in the 6 to 9 inch range.

Alerts... A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. A warning means travel conditions will become poor, as heavy snow causes to slippery roads and low visibility.

Essex County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 9 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. Most snow should wrap up around 4 p.m. Monday afternoon. A few flurries are possible through late Monday night, but little to no additional accumulation is expected.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be very light, with little to no accumulation is expected throughout the county. Maybe up to an inch if a stray band of heavier snow forms at some point.

Alerts... None.

Gloucester County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 4 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - with the heaviest and most widespread snowfall - will be around the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 5 p.m. Monday evening. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... Solid snowfall is expected here, although *the* heaviest bands should stay to the south. Expect about 3 to 6 inches of accumulation across the county.

Alerts... A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. A warning means travel conditions will become poor, as heavy snow causes to slippery roads and low visibility.

Hudson County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 10 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. Most snow should wrap up around 4 p.m. Monday afternoon. A few flurries are possible through late Monday night, but little to no additional accumulation is expected.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be very light, with little to no accumulation is expected throughout the county. Maybe up to an inch if a stray band of heavier snow forms at some point.

Alerts... None.

Hunterdon County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 67 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 3 p.m. Monday afternoon. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be light, with about a coating to 1 inch expected. The southern edge of the county is forecast to see a bit more, perhaps exceeding an inch.

Alerts... None.

Mercer County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 6 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 3 p.m. Monday afternoon. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... Some snow accumulation is expected, mainly on grassy and colder surfaces. Expect about 1 to 3 inches for most. The northern edge of the county will likely see a bit less, on the order of a healthy coating.

Alerts... None.

Middlesex County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 7 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 3 p.m. Monday afternoon. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be light, with about a coating to 1 inch expected. The southern edge of the county is forecast to see a bit more, perhaps exceeding an inch.

Alerts... None.

Monmouth County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 6 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 4 p.m. Monday afternoon. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 12 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... Some snow accumulation is expected, mainly on grassy and colder surfaces. Expect about 1 to 3 inches for most. The northern edge of the county will likely see a bit less, on the order of a healthy coating.

Alerts... None.

Morris County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 9 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. Most snow should wrap up around 3 p.m. Monday afternoon. A few flurries are possible through late Monday night, but little to no additional accumulation is expected.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be very light, with little to no accumulation is expected throughout the county. Maybe up to an inch if a stray band of heavier snow forms at some point.

Alerts... None.

Ocean County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 5 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - with the heaviest and most widespread snowfall - will be around the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 6 p.m. Monday evening. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 2 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... Conditions will vary from north to south across the county. To the north, forecast snow totals range from 1 to 3 inches. To the south, falling under heavier and more prolonged snow bands, the forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches.

Alerts... A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. An advisory is less severe and less urgent than a warning, serving as a formal heads-up that slippery roads are possible, due to light to moderate snowfall.

Passaic County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 9 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. Most snow should wrap up around 3 p.m. Monday afternoon. A few flurries are possible through late Monday night, but little to no additional accumulation is expected.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be very light, with little to no accumulation is expected throughout the county. Maybe up to an inch if a stray band of heavier snow forms at some point.

Alerts... None.

Salem County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 2 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - with the heaviest and most widespread snowfall - will be around the midday hours. The main storm band should exit and snow will start to taper around 5 p.m. Monday evening. Additional snow showers and light accumulations are possible through late night, until about 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Accumulation... You will be right on the northern edge of the "snow sweet spot" for this storm. Most of the county should pick up a solid 3 to 6 inches of accumulation. The southern edge, close to the Delaware Bay, could exceed 6 inches on the ground.

Alerts... A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday. A warning means travel conditions will become poor, as heavy snow causes to slippery roads and low visibility.

Somerset County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 7 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. Most snow should wrap up around 3 p.m. Monday afternoon. A few flurries are possible through late Monday night, but little to no additional accumulation is expected.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be light, with about a coating to 1 inch expected. The southern edge of the county is forecast to see a bit more, perhaps exceeding an inch.

Alerts... None.

Sussex County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 8 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. Most snow should wrap up around 3 p.m. Monday afternoon. A few flurries are possible through late Monday night, but little to no additional accumulation is expected.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be very light, with little to no accumulation is expected throughout the county. Maybe up to an inch if a stray band of heavier snow forms at some point.

Alerts... None.

Union County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 8 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. Most snow should wrap up around 4 p.m. Monday afternoon. A few flurries are possible through late Monday night, but little to no additional accumulation is expected.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be very light, with little to no accumulation is expected throughout the county. Maybe up to an inch if a stray band of heavier snow forms at some point.

Alerts... None.

Warren County

Timing... First snowflakes will probably arrive around 8 a.m. Monday morning, give or take, before becoming steadier a few hours later. The brunt of this storm - if you can even call it that - will bring steady light to moderate snow through the midday hours. Most snow should wrap up around 3 p.m. Monday afternoon. A few flurries are possible through late Monday night, but little to no additional accumulation is expected.

Accumulation... Snowfall will be very light, with little to no accumulation is expected throughout the county. Maybe up to an inch if a stray band of heavier snow forms at some point.

Alerts... None.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.