From snow to slush: New Jersey’s next storm is mainly a rainmaker

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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

The Bottom Line

For the most part, our "South Jersey Special" snow storm performed as expected. Total observed snowfall ranged from 0 to the north, to about 8 inches to the south. The biggest surprise for me was overperformance in and around Ocean County, where snowfall ended up closer to six inches in spots.

Steady snow has now ended, and major roads are in decent shape. But you will still find numerous slippery, sloppy spots around, especially across the southern half of New Jersey. Over 100 school districts announced a closure or delayed opening for Wednesday.

There will be some lingering snow showers around Wednesday morning. And then our attention turns to our next storm system, set to arrive less than 12 hours after the last one wrapped up.

But this next storm is different. It will carry warmer air into New Jersey. So we are facing a mainly wet scenario for New Jersey. There could be some snow and wintry mix at onset across the northern half of the state. But rain will be the predominant precipitation type through Wednesday night.

I hope you like slush, because there's about to be a lot of it.

We are also watching our next next storm system for this weekend. Same kind of situation, snow to rain. But the wintry component could be a bit more substantial for North Jersey.

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Wednesday

As of this writing (7 a.m.), I think accumulating snow is done. The main band of snow exited New Jersey early Wednesday morning. And we are left with spotty residual showers. Those pose a potential problem for visibility. But again, little to no additional accumulation is expected.

For the bulk of Wednesday's daytime hours, it will be pretty cloudy and pretty cold. We are starting with temperatures in the upper 20s. And highs will only reach the mid 30s in the afternoon.

Our next storm system is starting the day over Mississippi and Tennessee, and should enter southwestern New Jersey around dinnertime. Early Wednesday evening. Let's call it 6 p.m.

As air temperatures dip a couple degrees at sunset, a brief period of snow or wintry mix is possible for approximately the northern half of New Jersey. For the vast majority of the state, however, that will flip to just plain rain within an hour or two of onset. Leading to little to no snow/ice accumulation.

The exception is the area along and north of Interstate 80, with snow and icy mix may hang on a little bit longer. Through about Midnight, by my estimation. As a result, there could be some light accumulations — on the order of an inch of snow and a light glaze of ice.

A new Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service, in effect from 7 p.m. Wednesday to 9 a.m. Thursday for the following five NJ counties: Sussex, Warren, Morris, western Passaic, and western Bergen. Slippery spots are possible — but again, truly wintry impacts should be minimal.

Even that wintry zone of North Jersey will flip to all rain eventually, as temperatures rise to around 40 degrees overnight. So conditions should be just wet by daybreak Wednesday.

Thursday

When you wake up Thursday morning, that storm system will still be with us. Expect periods of rain through about late morning. In fact, there could be some pockets of heavy rain. Maybe even a rumble of thunder or two.

Total rainfall will probably end up around a half-inch for most. Some mesoscale models are pumping out heavier rainfall, over an inch, for southern New Jersey. It is a possibility, but not the most likely outcome.

Into Thursday afternoon, skies will start to clear and it will stay fairly mild. High temperatures will reach about 45 to 50 degrees.

The other big issue for Thursday will be a brisk wind kicking up, with gusts potentially to 30 mph around the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Friday

Happy Valentine's Day! And Happy Eagles Championship Parade Day!

Friday is the one and only sunny day in the forecast. Unfortunately, the bright sky comes with a resurgence of cold air.

High temperatures on Friday will struggle to reach the mid 30s. And with a brisk wind, the wind chill ("feels like" temperature) could be stuck in the 20s all day.

Saturday-Sunday

I'm lumping both weekend days together, because we have yet another broad storm system that will dominate our forecast for the President's Day Weekend.

Saturday morning should be cold, but quiet. And then our storm system will arrive sometime between late morning and late afternoon. (That start time piece of the forecast puzzle is unclear.)

Temperatures at onset will likely be cold enough for a period of snow for some segment of New Jersey. Maybe northern third. Maybe northern half. Possibly even the entire state.

For the most part, the opportunity for accumulations looks very limited, as we will once again flip to plain rain sometime Saturday night. However, forecast models are pumping out snowfall totals of 3 or 4 inches in North Jersey, along with the potential for light icing. Again, that would be Saturday afternoon and evening.

I have no hesitation in calling this weekend's storm "mainly" rain, as things turn very wet from late night through the day on Sunday. Yes, Sunday could be a washout, with pockets of moderate to heavy rain from morning through mid-afternoon.

We're looking at over an inch of rainfall from this one. That will help to melt most, if not all, residual snow and ice. And will definitely ease drought concerns — about 34% of the state is still in "Extreme Drought" status.

Oh, and high temperatures on Sunday will definitely be on the warm side. Near 40 to the north, but near 60 degrees to the south. Wow!

The Extended Forecast

The warm, rainy weather will be short-lived, as arctic air returns in full on Monday. It will be anywhere from 10 to 30 degrees colder than Sunday, with highs only in the upper 20s. Yes, below freezing all day. (We will have to watch for icy spots from residual puddles and wet spots.)

Most of next week stays cold. Leading into our next potential storm system around Thursday. Models have shown a strong nor'easter signal for several days. As of the latest run, that storm looks to dive south and away from New Jersey. But that one is definitely worth keeping a close eye on — someone along the U.S. East Coast could get smacked with heavy snow, coastal flooding, and wind.

As our weather settles down again, we can return to focusing on "one storm at a time". If there's something big coming our way, I promise you will be among the first to know!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.