Nasty weather for NJ Friday night: Heavy rain, wind, limited snow

The Bottom Line

Here we go — the second big storm system of the week arrives in New Jersey on Friday. This time around, however, the threat for wintry weather is very limited. Even more so, as forecast models continue to trend in a warmer and therefore wetter direction.

Rain and wind are going to get pretty intense Friday night, the brunt of the storm. Based on what I'm seeing, I have no hesitation in calling this downright nasty weather. Coastal flooding is a concern too.

Things will slowly simmer down through the first weekend of March. And then we enter a relatively quiet weather pattern through next week. Only one minor storm system to watch.

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Friday

Weather conditions will slide downhill during Friday's daytime hours. But the worst weather will hold off until late evening.

Friday morning begins with peeks of sun and temperatures mainly in the 30s. So far so good.

Thermometers will max out in the mid 40s around lunchtime. Still quiet.

Starting around 1 or 2 p.m., showers will start to drift into New Jersey from the southwest. It will take until 6 or 7 p.m. until those spotty raindrops reach the entire state.

There is a chance the initial wave of precipitation takes the form of wintry mix. Especially to the north and west, where temperatures may flirt with freezing by late afternoon. However, I do not think accumulations or travel woes will come into play, even through the evening commute.

Friday Night

Our 5 Day Forecast has a yellow alert icon for Friday. It's not for snow. Instead, the forecast calls for over an inch of rain, wind gusts of 40+ mph, and coastal flooding. A triple threat.

Although we are leaning away hard from a wintry forecast, the area in and around Sussex County could keep some snow and sleet around through late Friday evening. I will even say an inch or two of accumulation is possible, potentially leading to slippery spots. But again, that is only in far northern New Jersey.

For the rest of the state, the "brunt" of the storm will kick in around 9 or 10 p.m. Friday. Several hours of heavy rain and gusty winds will kick up through the overnight hours. Rumbles of thunder are possible too. The worst of the worst should start to wane by 4 or 5 a.m. Saturday.

With those strong easterly winds driving ocean water toward the Shore, coastal flooding will be a concern too. High tide along the oceanfront will ocean in the predawn hours Saturday morning. Back bays and tributaries crest up to three hours later. The Delaware Bay and Delaware River will crest closer to midday Saturday. And all those locales are prone to see water rise and inundating issues. Widespread minor to localized moderate category flooding is expected along tidal waterways.

Saturday

Showers may linger for a bit through late Saturday morning, mainly to the north and east. We could even see a final transition from light rain to light snow, especially the farther north in NJ you are.

The rest of Saturday will be mostly cloudy and still windy, with 30+ mph gusts still possible into the afternoon.

Temperatures will be a bit wild and variable Saturday. Early morning, it will range from mid 30s (north) to mid 50s (south). Temperatures will then dip in the morning, recovering to around 40 (north) to 50 (south) in the afternoon.

Sunday

Sunday will easily be the nicer day of the weekend. Skies will become mostly sunny, as we stay dry all day. Wind speeds will still end up in the "breezy" category. High temperatures should aim for the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. That is seasonable, par for the course for early March.

Monday & Beyond

Quiet weather is a rarity in March. But there really won't be much to talk about next week.

Monday looks great, with lower-mid 50s and increasing clouds. Our one hiccup of the week will be Tuesday, with a quick round of spotty rain showers in the morning. Then a refreshed breeze throughout the day.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be at or below normal, in the 40s.

Our next opportunity for a more substantial storm system will not come along until next weekend.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.