Forget the polls: The next New Jersey governor may be decided by this

🔴 Democrats see major registration losses ahead of the 2025 governor's race.

🔴 Republican numbers soar in New Jersey after Trump’s 2024 run.

🔴 Trends may reveal the winner between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli

The biggest factor in determining the next governor of New Jersey may be voter registration, which has shown a significant shift in favor of one party.

With the latest polls in disagreement, the winner of the upcoming Nov. 4 gubernatorial election is up in the air.

A recent Fox News poll shows, among likely voters, Democrat Mikie Sherrill with an 8-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, 50-42%.

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Just two weeks earlier, the two candidates were tied at 43% in a poll from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill.

However, there's no uncertainty about the shocking shift in New Jersey voter registration.

Democrats’ once-dominant edge has eroded sharply

In 2021, then-incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy beat Ciattarelli. Around 2.6 million ballots were cast, and Murphy won his second term by only 84,286 votes.

On Oct. 1, 2021, Democrats boasted a gap of 1.07 million registered voters in New Jersey.

It was a solid advantage in a historically blue state with 9.5 million residents.

Since then, Republicans have significantly closed the gap in voter registration.

GOP gains strength as Democrats lose voters statewide

There are now 855,000 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in the Garden State. That's according to the latest voter registration numbers on Oct. 1 from the state Division of Elections.

That difference of more than 217,000 people comes from Republicans gaining 165,000 registered voters and Democrats losing 52,000 registered voters.

There are also 56,000 fewer unaffiliated, or independent voters, than four years ago.

The bleeding hasn't stopped for Democrats, either.

Surge in independents shows voter frustration with both parties

From Sept. 1, 2025 to Oct. 1, 2025, Republicans gained 2,300 registered voters in New Jersey while Democrats lost 4,300 registered voters.

Interestingly, new unaffiliated registered voters eclipsed both parties with more than 13,000 new independents.

Matthew Hale, a political science professor at Seton Hall University, says that's been a national trend.

"I think you're seeing a lot of people who are fed up with both parties and have decided that they're going to be unaffiliated or independent. They may not vote that way, but they might register that way," Hale said.

The Trump effect on voter registration

Republican voter registration in New Jersey has also surged since President Donald Trump won his second term in the Nov. 5, 2024 election.

Trump overperformed in New Jersey but still lost to Vice President Kamala Harris by over 252,000 votes.

Since Oct. 1, 2024, more than 58,000 voters have registered as Republicans in New Jersey.

And any new resistance to the Trump administration isn't reflected in the voter rolls, as Democrats have lost 3,500 in the same time frame.

ALSO SEE: Moody’s economist says New Jersey is now in a recession

However, if New Jersey voters are fed up with both parties, it's a relatively recent change.

Even taking recent increases in unaffiliated voters into account, there are 100,000 fewer independents in the Garden State than one year ago.

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