NJ’s historic heat wave is finally over: On-and-off rain, heavy at times Monday

The Bottom Line

Monday is going to be a soggy weather day. And that is wonderful news, putting a definitive end to our historic seven-day heat wave and also providing some much-needed drought relief. Parts of New Jersey picked up over 2 inches of rainfall from heavy thunderstorms overnight, and concerns for ponding and flooding will continue throughout the day. A Flood Watch is in effect statewide until 8 p.m. Monday. On-and-off rain will continue Monday, although it will become more scattered, or more broken apart, through the midday and afternoon hours. There could still be some pockets of heavy stuff and rumbles of thunder, and it will still be a damp, dreary, and cooler day overall. Final showers will exit the Garden State Tuesday morning, as clouds and cool temperatures linger for another day. And then sunshine returns on Wednesday, fueling a warmup back to the 80s. Seasonable beach and pool weather returns for the second half of the week.

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Weather Hazards

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of New Jersey until 8 p.m. Monday. While the steadiest, most widespread rain is behind us at this point, additional pockets of heavy rain could still cause ponding, big puddles, and reduced visibility. A few downpours could still drop rain at a quick clip (1 to 2+ inches per hour).

A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible Monday, so I have to include rumbles of thunder in the forecast too. Later in the week, a few more strong thunderstorms may become possible as warmer, more seasonable air returns. Moderate to high humidity remains a common theme here too.

Climatological Context

July 6 is the 187th day of 2026. We are now officially past the halfway mark of the year.

Normal high temperatures range from 86 to 87 degrees, which is as high as they go over the course of the year. Normal low temperatures range from 66 to 69 degrees.

July is, on average, New Jersey’s hottest and wettest month of the year.

I also want to address my use of the word "historic" in describing our recent heat wave, which is a deliberate and appropriate choice. First of all, 19 New Jerseyans died as a result of the heat wave — that is significant and incredibly tragic. By the numbers, the weather station at Atlantic City International Airport hit 106 degrees on Saturday, the 4th of July, tying its all-time record high temperature of 106 degrees previously set in 1969. That is a big deal. Furthermore, this was the first time ever that KACY had three days in a row with temperatures at or above 103 degrees. Also remarkable. And, again, historic.

Monday

New Jersey returns to work after the big #America250 holiday weekend. And it is a wet start to the week. Maybe you heard the pitter-patter of raindrops overnight. Or maybe the deluge of downpours. Parts of New Jersey have picked up a fresh inch or two, or more, of rainfall already as some bands of heavy, steady rain pushed through.

After seven ferociously hot days in a row, including five days of triple-digit temperatures, the heat wave is over.

Monday will feature scattered rain — on-and-off, hit-or-miss pockets of wet weather, alongside periods of dry weather too. There could be some areas of heavy rain and rumbles of thunder along the way. In general, rain will become spottier (more broken and spread apart) as the midday and afternoon hours go along.

Meanwhile, expect cloudy skies, a breeze, and much cooler temperatures. Highs will range from around 70 degrees in North Jersey to around 80 degrees in South Jersey. Much cooler than the last week.

I have to keep the chance for spot showers in the neighborhood through Monday night. There will be a hint of humidity in the air, preventing temperatures from dropping below the upper 60s.

Tuesday

Tuesday keeps New Jersey cloudy, cool, and somewhat unsettled. A morning shower is still possible, as the final piece of this storm system drifts away.

Temperatures will only reach about 70 to 75 degrees. That will make Tuesday our coolest day in about two weeks (since June 23rd). What a welcome change of pace after last week’s extreme heat, even if the sky does not look especially pretty.

Wednesday

Finally the first "nice" weather day of July, after all the heat and storms and rain and gloom.

Rain chances shut off as sunshine returns Wednesday. And temperatures will warm right back up in response.

Highs will reach the lower 80s on Wednesday, just slightly below normal for this time of year.

Humidity will be manageable and winds will be light. No complaints here — all around pleasant summer weather. Back to beach and pool weather.

Thursday & Beyond

Thursday's forecast reads like a typical summer day. Seasonable warmth, noticeable humidity, partial sunshine, and a chance for thunderstorms.

Look for sun and clouds, with highs in the mid 80s Thursday. A batch of late-day showers and thunderstorms is expected to arrive late-day. And given the sticky air, I would not be surprised to see some stronger storm cells with gusty winds and soaking rains included.

Friday looks like the hottest day of the week, near 90 degrees. Not extreme heat, mind you, just sweaty. There will once again be a chance of a late-day thunderstorm.

Sunshine and 80s return for the weekend, good news for those looking for some summertime R&R. The next storm system and rain chance we'll have to watch arrives late Sunday. There is no extreme heat coming in the foreseeable future, I am happy to say.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.