Latest update on NJ’s snowy and rainy midweek nor’easter

The Bottom Line

Monday will be clear and dry. Tuesday absolutely will not. A powerful storm system is still aiming for New Jersey on Tuesday, from the morning through early evening hours. But it will not be a "snow storm" for the majority of the state. Plowable snow is a possibility, but only among the colder, higher elevation areas of northwestern New Jersey. Still, everyone should be aware and alert to the possibility of icy, wet, raw conditions so you can prepare (for the first real taste of winter this season) and plan (change your daily routine as needed).

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Storm Timeline

Again, no weather problems are expected for Monday.

By daybreak Tuesday, the leading edge of this storm system will be pushing across the Delaware River into western New Jersey. As it does, surface temperatures will likely be at or below the freezing mark along and west of the NJ Turnpike corridor. So initial precipitation type there will be snow or wintry mix. (Represented by both the blue and orange colors in my forecast map below.) Closer to the coast, temperatures will be warmer — while a quick initial burst of snowflakes is possible, it should transition to all rain soon enough.

By late morning (11 a.m. at the latest), rising temperatures will cause most of the "snow zone" in New Jersey to mix with and then change over to plain rain. That means any initial accumulations along that NJ Turnpike corridor will be trivial, as the ground turns slushy and wet — no shoveling or plowing required. (Hopefully major roads will be well treated, which would mitigate significant issues with the morning commute.)

The brunt of this storm, the period of heaviest precipitation, will likely occur as the center of circulation passes overhead in the late morning to early afternoon time frame. And again, that is likely to be just rain for the majority of the state. To the north, if it stays cold enough — and that is a big if — there could be some travel headaches by lunchtime if heavier snow bands develop.

By late afternoon to early evening, precipitation should start to wind down as the storm system drifts off-shore. By dinnertime, we should dry out. It will stay raw and damp and cold overnight. And as temperatures plunge below freezing for part of the state, an icy refreeze is a possibility for Wednesday morning.

Accumulations & Totals

I have settled on a reasonable, middle of the road solution for snowfall totals in North Jersey's cold corner of 2 to 5+ inches. As always, that "plus" is important, because some isolated mountaintop could really overperform as temperatures stay colder than surrounding areas. But I don't forecast for mountaintops — I forecast for people — so I think it's important to give a general sense of how things will shake out. This falls in the "moderate" or "advisory level" snowfall category.

That transition zone north and west of the NJ Turnpike could pick up a quick coating or even an inch of snow before that inevitable flip to rain. So expect a transition from potentially wintry through the morning commute to slushy by late morning to just wet by the evening commute. My official map shows a snow range here of a coating to 2 inches, but I am admittedly leaning toward the lower end of that range given my sense that warm air will win out over cold air pretty quickly Tuesday morning.

Southern and coastal New Jersey, this ain't your storm. Well, it is if you like rain. A quick burst of conversation snow is possible, but I don't expect any accumulation or travel issues. Then, you'll see an inch to inch and a half of rain. There will be some big puddles and wet conditions around through the evening commute, so be careful.

Advisories

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Sussex County only from 4 a.m. to 10 p.m. Tuesday. This is a good call, as this is the only corner of the state that could see significant snow overperformance with snowfall totals over 5 inches. (Again, mountaintops vs. everybody else.) If the forecast holds, this would be upgraded to a warning within 24 hours of onset.

A less-urgent, less-severe advisory will likely be issued for surrounding issues where slippery, somewhat less hazardous travel conditions are expected.

Forecast Confidence

Considering we are about 36 hours away from first snowflakes, I am concerned about how shaky this forecast is. More specifically, among model guidance there remains a wide range of potential snow totals for NW NJ based on when (and whether) warmer air will win out and force a transition from snow to rain. The mesoscale NAM is warm. The Euro is strangely cold. The GFS is right in the middle, as are most ensemble runs.

I am comfortable with the forecast snow map I have included here, because it gives me room to raise or lower snow total expectations as needed in the eleventh hour. It really comes down to temperatures — a single degree on the thermometer can make all the difference in snow vs. rain. (Ugh, welcome to winter weather forecasting!)

What's Next?

After the storm passes on Wednesday, skies will clear and New Jersey will settle into a dry, cold weather pattern for a few days. High temperatures will be more in the 30s than anything else, with an occasional biting wind chill as well. That is unseasonable, even for the first week of December.

There is another storm modeled to affect us at the end of the week, in the Friday-Saturday time frame. Worth watching, but it does not currently have the makings of a "major" deal at this time. We will have better resolution about how that one will play out after Tuesday's storm passes.

Next comprehensive forecast update will be on the radio starting at 3:30 a.m. and online in the 8 a.m. hour Monday morning.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.