‘Typical’ summer weather returns to NJ: Seasonably warm, a few thunderstorms

The Bottom Line

Finally, New Jersey breaks into some "regular" non-extreme weather. Wednesday looks beautiful, as sunshine returns, humidity levels stay manageable, and temperatures rise to the comfortably warm lower 80s across most of the state. No heat, no storms, just nice. Thursday looks good to start, although rising humidity will help to fuel scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Some of those boomers could be on the strong side, and there could be some localized pockets of heavy rain, on the order of 1 to 2 inches. Same for Friday, a fairly hot and humid day with some afternoon thunderstorm activity. Our weather should settle down nicely for the upcoming weekend though, as skies brighten up, our weather dries out, and temperatures end up in the seasonable 80s. Far more great weather days than not coming up here.

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Weather Hazards

The only thing of note in this forecast: Our next rain chance Thursday and Friday will likely come in the form of scattered thunderstorms.

As warmer air and richer moisture return to New Jersey's atmosphere, some storm cells could become gusty or produce localized downpours, with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible in spots. The ingredients are not coming together the same way they did during the damaging wind and flooding events of the last week.

Still, every thunderstorm is potentially dangerous. So let's not let our guard down over the next couple of days.

Climatological Context

July 8 is the 189th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 86 to 87 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 66 to 69 degrees.

July is, on average, New Jersey’s hottest and wettest month of the year.

Wednesday

After a turbulent and challenging week, New Jersey's weather has finally settled down. I can finally call Wednesday a pleasant weather day — the first one we have had in a while.

All is quiet across the Garden State Wednesday morning, with temperatures in the 60s from top to bottom. That is exactly what we like to see in the middle of summer.

Skies will be mostly sunny through the day. Rain chances are basically zero. And humidity levels stay in the moderate category. Manageable. Comfortable, all things considered.

Most of New Jersey will reach the lower 80s Wednesday afternoon, while the Jersey Shore stays cooler in the 70s thanks to a sea breeze. Winds will stay light, generally no more than 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday night stays quiet with a few clouds and lows again in the 60s.

Thursday

Thursday starts off fine, with a mix of sun and clouds. It will be stickier, as dew points rise into the 70s and high temperatures climb into the mid 80s. With humidity on the rise, that added moisture will help fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

It is not expected to be an all-day washout. However, there will be enough instability and moisture in the atmosphere for a few stronger thunderstorm cells. Any storm could produce dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and localized heavy rain. Some areas of New Jersey could pick up a quick inch or two of rainfall if a downpour sits overhead, enough for some ponding or flooding issues.

It's an "eyes an ears on the sky" kind of day for sure.

Friday

Friday will be similar to Thursday. We end the workweek on a fairly hot and humid note, with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Skies will become mostly cloudy, and once again, there will be a good chance for a round of showers and thunderstorms starting in the afternoon.

Friday's round of stormy weather should be quick, but could be potent. Scattered thunderstorms may briefly interrupt your outdoor plans, especially if heavy rain and gusty winds come into play.

Remember: This is truly typical July weather. Very warm and humid, with sporadic thunderstorms.

Saturday & Beyond

The weekend forecast is shaping up pretty nicely overall. The atmosphere should dry out and generally clear out. I expect partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 80s for both Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday carries just the chance of an isolated shower, but most of the day and most of the state should be dry. Sunday looks fair and mild too, with bright skies, comfortable summer warmth, and no major weather issues.

Looking ahead, there are far more great weather days than not in this forecast. Long-range models have two schools of thought regarding next week: One or two chances of rain late week, or a marginal heat wave (90s) building in. Nothing big, nothing extreme, nothing earth-shattering as it stands now.

I also want to point out that I haven't talked about the tropics in a while ... because there's nothing to talk about. We had one short-lived tropical storm in the Gulf last month — Arthur. And that's it. This is the slowest start to the Atlantic hurricane season since 2019. And it is totally expected, by the way, given El Nino conditions out in the Pacific. Hopefully things stay quiet — remember the peak of the season comes as the ocean is at its warmest, from late August into September.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.