One more day of arctic wind for NJ, up to one inch of snow this weekend

The Bottom Line

Sick of the biting cold wind yet? Too bad!

This has been quite a wintry, frigid week. And we have one more day in the arctic before some improvements arrive. Having said that, Thursday looks to be the windiest day of the week, as gusts potentially exceed 40 mph in spots.

Friday's forecast reads like a decent January day, with calmer winds and slightly warmer temperatures.

And then along comes Saturday. For several days, we have been tracking a potential winter storm this weekend. It has been clear this will not be a "big deal" for New Jersey, with only an inch of potential accumulation for New Jersey. Sure that is enough to cause some visibility and traction issues Saturday morning.

But the big blizzard hyped-up on social media last week? I say nay-nay.

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Thursday

Surprise, surprise. Thursday will be yet another sunny, windy, cold January day for the Garden State.

Thursday morning is starting off with temperatures in the teens and 20s. When the wind blows, the wind chill will rock, only in the single digits in many spots.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for two areas of the state expected to see particularly high winds Thursday: higher elevations of North Jersey, and the immediate coast along the Jersey Shore. Top gusts are forecast to reach the 40 to 50 mph range. (Other areas will probably max out around 30-40 mph.)

So not only are we talking about the biting wind chill, but also the potential for driving difficulties, garbage cans blowing around, and sporadic power outages.

Skies should be mostly sunny. High temperatures will only reach about 30 degrees. That will keep the dreaded wind chill (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) only in the teens, at best.

Although wind speeds should dial back by Thursday evening, a biting breeze will continue overnight. Look for low temperatures around 20 degrees and a wind chill closer to 10.

Friday

Friday will be better. We lose the bluster — it will be less windy and not as frigid. I think you will notice a big difference in the air.

We will see increasing clouds, losing morning sun to afternoon clouds. I have settled on mid 30s for my forecast. But I could see thermometers creeping toward 40 in a perfect world. That would be close to normal for early-mid January, by the way.

Friday stays completely dry. We do have a chance of snow coming in, but not until very late Friday night.

Saturday

OK, let's talk about snow.

Or the lack thereof.

Saturday is a "squeeze play" for New Jersey. We had been watching a storm system to the north and a (stronger) storm system to the south, and the potential for them to "phase" or merge along the coast. This mechanism is a driver of nor'easters and blizzards in NJ.

But guess what. No phase. At least, not close enough to New Jersey for any significant weather.

We will see some snowflakes flying around New Jersey on Thursday. But a big storm is highly unlikely at this point. (If you were following along with my storm scenarios earlier this week, the ultimate outcome is between #1 Glancing Blow Light Snow and #3 Complete Miss.)

Still, "low snow" is not "no snow" — I do think there is an opportunity for some slippery spots and pockets of reduced visibility on Saturday. While you probably do not need to cancel plans, expect longer-than-usual travel times and pockets of inclement, wintry weather.

Is it possible the forecast flips back toward a snowier solution? I suppose the probability is not quite zero. But all model guidance agrees on this "low snow" outcome for the Garden State. The consensus is very clear, and confidence is medium to high now.

Prime time for snow will be about Midnight to Noon on Saturday morning. Snow accumulations will range from zero to one inch in New Jersey. I decided to not get complicated nitpicking the geography of the snow — who is most likely to see a half-inch vs. an inch — because the impacts are pretty much the same either way.

For the record, I chose orange for the background color on my tongue-in-cheek oh-so-helpful forecast map because my son Nathan turns five today, and that is his favorite color. (Happy Birthday Nate!)

No other significant impacts like icing, wind, or coastal flooding are expected Saturday. Just snow showers.

Once light snow clears out around midday Saturday, partial sunshine should emerge. High temperatures should reach about 30 to 35 degrees. (Areas with fresh snow on the ground will lean toward the colder end of that scale.)

Sunday

Sunday looks good. Mostly sunny and quiet. Light winds. And nothing falling from the sky.

High temperatures will reach about 35 to 40 degrees. Again, reasonably close to the long-term climatological average for this time of year.

The Extended Forecast

Monday stays seasonable, near 40. Then a reinforcing shot of cold air will drive temperatures down and wind speeds up through the middle of the week.

Other than that return to "arctic blast" conditions, next week looks pretty quiet. The next opportunity for a storm system in New Jersey's neighborhood would be next weekend. And since that is a full nine days away, there is nothing specific to talk about yet.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.