Tuesday NJ weather: A ‘dead of winter’ chill, with flurries

The Bottom Line

New Jersey's new air mass is cold. It is very dry. And a tight pressure gradient will keep that cold, dry air moving around with a gusty wind. It is going to be a wintry day. In fact, it could be our coldest since late February, believe it or not.

A few flurries are possible on Tuesday too, although no travel issues are expected.

Wednesday stays cold, then temperatures moderate through the weekend. There are a couple storm systems on the horizon. But because of that little warmup, we are talking about a couple batches of rain through the first few days of December.

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Tuesday

Cold and windy. By the numbers: Morning temperatures are hovering on either side of 30 degrees. Afternoon high temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 30s. (At least it is above freezing.) But regular wind gusts of 20 to 30+ mph will add a bite to the cold air. The wind chill ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) will be stuck in the 20s throughout your Tuesday.

We will see sunshine, with passing clouds. And probably some widespread flurries throughout the daytime hours. Maybe even an outright snow shower somewhere, putting a picturesque dusting of snow on the ground. However, this is not the kind of situation that leads to big accumulations or travel issues.

Tuesday night, the wind will calm. But temperatures will drop like a stone. Overnight lows will end up deep in the 20s, a hard freeze for most of the Garden State.

Wednesday

One more unseasonably cold day. At least winds will be noticeably lighter.

I am calling Wednesday "mostly sunny," although there will be clouds around through the afternoon. High temperatures again will end up in the mid-upper 30s. (I'm guessing that Wednesday will end up a degree or two colder than Tuesday.)

Thursday

Improvements, as temperatures jump up to more seasonable, more reasonable levels.

Highs on Thursday will reach the upper 40s, on average. Putting an end to our two-day cold snap. The day will start with sunshine, with clouds probably increasing through the afternoon. It will be dry and calm — overall, not a bad way to close out November.

Friday

December begins with seasonable temperatures, pushing into the lower 50s. But skies will be mostly cloudy. And a quick-hitting storm system will deliver a batch of rain to NJ.

Most likely rainfall timing is Friday mid-afternoon through late evening, totalling about a quarter-inch. Nothing heavy or severe. And nothing wintry, thanks to that warmup pushing temperatures well above the freezing mark.

The Weekend & Beyond

The weekend looks OK, although a little bit iffy and potentially unsettled.

Latest guidance shows cloud skies on Saturday. And maybe some late-day showers and sprinkles around. High temperatures will hold steady, in the near-normal lower 50s.

Sunday's forecast has gotten better, with the return of sunshine and 50s.

Our next storm system will come along late Sunday into Monday. This one could produce some pockets of heavy rain, totalling up to an inch. And I could also see some colder air come into play, leading to some wet snowflakes in far northern New Jersey only.

By the middle of next week, things trend cold again through the midpoint of December.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.