Two rounds of rain will soak NJ this week

The Bottom Line

With less than two weeks to go until the Winter Solstice, New Jersey's weather is firing up and becoming more active this week. Unsettled is the name of the game, with some much-needed rain and a temperature roller coaster coming up.

There are really four headlines in this week's weather forecast:
1.) Light scattered rain Monday.
2.) Dense fog Monday night to Tuesday.
3.) Potential for heavy rain and a washout Wednesday.
4.) Big cooldown Thursday.

That's a lot of weather to play out over just 72 hours. So grab the jacket and the umbrella, and let's dive into the details.

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Monday: Wet

When we are in such a dire drought situation, wet days should make us all happy. Monday is not going to be dramatic or dangerous. There is nothing heavy, nothing severe, and nothing wintry here. Just damp and dreary weather for a majority of the day.

The Monday morning commute should stay dry. As of this writing (6:30 a.m.), clouds are filling in from the west. It is chilly to start, in the 30s.

Raindrops are expected to move into New Jersey starting around 10 a.m. Monday morning. And then we will dry out by about 6 p.m. Monday evening. So through the midday and afternoon hours, everyone in the state is expected to get wet. Total rainfall will likely average a quarter-inch.

Because of the clouds and rain, temperatures will take a step backward on Monday too. (After Sunday became our first warmer-than-normal day since Thanksgiving.) Look for highs around 50 degrees, give or take.

After rain wraps up Monday evening, there will be residual puddles and wet surfaces heading into the overnight hours. But there is no danger of a freeze, as temperatures will only drop into the 40s overnight.

One new weather nuisance will develop late Monday night: Fog.

Tuesday: Foggy

As temperatures cool to meet rising dew points, fog will form into Tuesday morning. Watch for pockets of low visibility.

And the fog is expected to linger around through much of Tuesday. You might catch a glimmer of sunshine at some point, especially in the afternoon. (Fog is one of the most difficult weather phenomena to create a pinpoint forecast.)

Otherwise, Tuesday will be dry. High temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 50s.

Wednesday: Wetter

Another storm system rolls in on Wednesday. A stronger one. Accompanied by more humid air. That will yield heavier, more substantial rain — on the order of 1 to 1.5 inches.

Wednesday is a potential washout, as I see pockets of rain soaking New Jersey from early morning through late evening. At the moment, model guidance shows the steadiest and heaviest rain to be during the afternoon hours. If you have outdoor activities planned for Wednesday, you may have to cancel or reschedule ... or get wet.

High temperatures on Wednesday will surge into the 60s on a strong southwest breeze. (Too bad we will not be able to enjoy the warmth with all the rain.)

Wednesday's wet weather will come to an end as a strong cold front arrives in the late evening hours, just before Midnight. As temperatures drop, there will be a brief opportunity for an hour or two of snow in NW NJ — but it will be too brief and the ground will be too wet/warm for accumulations.

The other thing to watch is the potential for a flash freeze and icy spots Wednesday night. For now, I will say it is a "wait and see" kind of possibility.

Thursday: Cold

Our weather goes in the complete opposite direction on Thursday, as arctic air returns to New Jersey.

Thursday will be sunny and dry. And windy, with westerly gusts over 30 mph.

And cold. Expect temperatures around 30 degrees in the morning, and then only mid 30s in the afternoon. (A far cry from those soggy 60s on Wednesday.)

Back to bundling up, with some bitter dead-of-winter cold.

Friday & Beyond

Friday will be less blustery than Thursday, but just as cold. We will likely experience a widespread hard freeze in the morning, in the 20s. And then highs will once again only reach the 30s for most of the state.

A warmup should kick in over the weekend, reaching the 40s on Saturday and potentially 50s on Sunday. The GFS model favors another daylong round of rain on Sunday, but other guidance keeps us dry. We will see how things continue to develop.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.