The Bottom Line

Another day, another storm system. Areas of low pressure will track directly over New Jersey on Wednesday, leading to persistent periods of wet weather. It is not going to pour all day. But inch-plus rainfall is back on the table, especially to the south and along the coast. And gusty 30+ mph winds are possible too.

We will dry out on Thursday ... eventually. And then squeeze out one totally dry, pleasant day on Friday.

The weekend brings another complicated storm system toward New Jersey. There are a couple scenarios on the table at this point, ranging from very wet to mainly dry.

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Wednesday

It is a damp start to yet another wet May day. It will not necessarily be a total washout. But definitely one of those less-than-pleasant, inclement, damp and dreary situations.

As of this writing (7 a.m.), showers are spread across most of the state, with a band of steadier rain over southern New Jersey. That will be the trend through the day — light stuff to the north and west, heavier rain to the south and east. The southern half of the state could pick up over an inch of rain before this storm system wraps up.

There's no imminent danger of widespread severe weather or flooding. Just some big puddles. And some elevated wind gusts, on the order of 30+ mph, especially into Wednesday evening.

Temperatures are close to 60 degrees to start. And thermometers will do no better in the afternoon, only in the 50s to around 60, at best.

Wednesday evening, any steady rain will transition to spotty showers, especially after Midnight. It will stay windy for a time. Low temperatures will only drop a few degrees, into the mid 50s.

Thursday

Still unsettled. As this weak coastal storm pulls away, it will spit some raindrops back toward New Jersey. The coast will be most prone to see spotty showers through the day.

Meanwhile, we will hold on to thick cloud cover and unseasonable cool temperatures. Highs will only improve slightly, to the lower 60s. (If we catch some peeks of sun, I could see temps climbing a little higher.)

Friday

The only guarantee of an upcoming nice day is Friday. Expect a mix of clouds and sun, with the midday hours likely the brightest of the day. Temperatures will be seasonable and pleasant, topping out around 70 degrees.

Saturday & Sunday

Another storm system comes into view for the weekend. (The last weekend before Memorial Day Weekend, by the way.) And our two primary long-range models show two very different scenarios playing out:

—The GFS model is wet, as a coastal storm system tracks right on top of NJ. Showers on Saturday, leading to soaking rain all-day Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Very little hope for outdoor activities at any time. Rainfall totals could end up between 2 and 3 inches for most of the state. Temperatures would be miserably cool, in the 60s on Saturday and the 50s on Sunday.

—The European model is mainly dry, pushing that storm system south of New Jersey. A few showers may creep in Saturday and/or Sunday, but impacts and rainfall totals would be minimal. Temperatures would be warmer, firmly in the 60s for the duration.

Wow, what a difference. It's hard to "pick a favorite" at this point. And I can not exactly go with a middle-ground solution either.

My gut currently gravitates toward the wetter solution. The overall picture makes more sense to me, continuing our pattern of active, wet weather this spring.

However, I'm going to kick any notion of a detailed forecast down the road a bit. Let's clear away from our current soggy mess before we deal with the next one.

The Extended Forecast

As you might guess, the long-range forecast is dependent upon how this weekend's storm system plays out. I think we will trend warmer and drier next week, aside from a midweek cold front.

And I still like what I see on the horizon for the Memorial Day Weekend, just 10 days away — odds are it will rain at some point over the long weekend, but I do not see an especially active pattern.

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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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