
Umbrellas up, NJ: Periods of rain all day Friday
The Bottom Line
It has been a while since we've had rain in New Jersey. And the U.S. Drought Monitor reflects that reality, as drought conditions worsened in New Jersey this week. Approximately the northern third of the state remains in the "moderate drought" category. Central and southwestern NJ are in "severe drought". And southern and coastal areas are in the worst shape, in the "extreme drought" classification.
Overall, Friday will be an inclement and wet weather day for New Jersey. There remains an icing concern for North Jersey in the morning. And some localized wind gusts are possible later on. But in general, we are just looking at periods of plain rain.
As the calendar page flips to February this weekend, the Garden State will dry out and chill out. Saturday will probably be the nicer day, despite a cold breeze. There is a chance of a snow shower on Sunday.
Next week's forecast is a giant roller coaster. Temperatures flip from warm to cold and back again. And there will be another opportunity for rain and/or wintry mix around the middle of the week.

Friday
No flooding. No snow. Nothing overly dramatic or severe. Just (mainly) wet weather.
As a warm front lifts through New Jersey, temperatures are on the rise Friday morning. As of this writing, the northern third of the state — approximately along and north of Interstate 78 — is holding just below the freezing mark. So that raises the concern for wintry mix. Specifically freezing rain. (Remember, that is liquid rain that freezes upon contact with a cold surface, making for a very slippery situation.)
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect not for snow, but for a potential glaze of ice, for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and western Passaic counties. By 9 or 10 a.m., the icing threat will be over, and the rest of the day will feature plain ol' liquid rain.
The first half of Friday will only see scattered rain. There will be breaks and dry slots along the way, although conditions will stay damp and dreary.
The steadiest, heaviest rain will kick in starting around mid-afternoon, through the evening. Locally gusty winds are a possibility too in that time period, up to about 40 mph.
Total rainfall will probably range from a half-inch to an inch, with South Jersey the wettest part of the state. Only a small dent in our rainfall deficit running since the fall, but we will take every raindrop we can get. Plus, this will be a "salt reset" as roads and cars get a nice rinse after our last snowfall 12 days ago.
Rain will not wrap up for New Jersey until late Friday night, likely after midnight.
Temperatures are a bit tricky for Friday, as they will not rise and fall according to the typical "diurnal" trend. Highs will likely range between 40 and 50 degrees, north to south — but that will happen around Midnight. After the rain wraps up, thermometers will likely nosedive into the 30s by daybreak Saturday.
Note: I do not expect Saturday morning to be cold enough for a "flash freeze".
Saturday
Drying out, although we do swing back to the cold side of normal.
Skies will turn sunny by late morning.
With a chilly 20 mph breeze, Saturday's temperatures will just go nowhere. Look for afternoon temps in the upper 30s or so. (I can't call it the "high" for the calendar day, since we will be close to 50 degrees just after Midnight.)
Sunday
Sunday will be the greyer day of the weekend. Skies will range from mostly cloudy to overcast.
The morning will be very cold, with mainly teens on the temperature map. Highs will be limited to the mid 30s.
In addition, a weak impulse riding past New Jersey may be close enough to spit some snow showers over us. Little to no accumulation is expected.
Monday & Beyond
All aboard the temperature roller coaster!
Despite mostly cloudy skies, a return of southwesterly winds will help push high temperatures to near 50 degrees on Monday. It will be dry, and that wind will be light — so it has the potential to be a really nice, mild early February day.
Tuesday turns colder again, as high temps return to seasonable levels in the lower 40s. It should be a mostly sunny day. And I do not think winds will be too ferocious. So again, a nice weather day — just 10 degrees cooler than Monday.
Our next storm system complex comes into view in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. This period of inclement weather could take several forms, including wintry mix and all rain. I don't think this one has enough "oomph" to produce widespread snow accumulations over New Jersey — but sloppy travel is a possibility.
Long-range forecasts show another cold snap arriving next weekend, carrying through the midpoint of February. That could be the next time the ingredients come together for our next widespread winter storm. Nothing definite for now — but remember, February is New Jersey's average snowiest month of the year.
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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.