Winter Storm Warning: Latest update on Monday’s southern NJ snow

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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

The Latest Update

With less than 24 hours to go until the first snowflakes fall from this clipper system here in New Jersey, forecast confidence continues to climb. This will be a classic "South Jersey Special" winter storm, as the center of the storm system passes just to our south. Total snowfall is expected to literally range from nothing to 9+ inches (north to south).

There are still numerous reasons why this storm system could spit out big snow totals here:
—Models are very close to a "perfect" storm track, putting the heaviest snow bands directly over South Jersey.
—The air is cold, allowing for an all-snow situation. No mixing or rain getting in the way.
—The air is dry, putting the snow ratio around 15:1. Fluffy snow accumulates faster and higher than heavy, wet snow.
—The ground is cold, allowing snow to stick and begin accumulating immediately.

There is also a couple big reasons why this storm could be a dud:
—A shift southward of 30 to 50 miles would keep heavier snow bands away from South Jersey.
—Cold air is dry air, significantly suppressing snowflakes. (Especially to the north.)
—Heavy snow banding just doesn't happen, similar to Friday's storm, leading to underperformance.

Oddly enough, my latest snow accumulation forecast goes both up and down. I think it is prudent to upgrade the snowfall potential along the southern edge of New Jersey, into the "major snow" category — I have settled on a max forecast of 6 to 9 inches. Meanwhile, approximately the northern third to half of the state should expect little to no accumulation at all.

With a Winter Storm Warning issued for seven NJ counties, it is time to finish preparations for a slippery, sloppy, snowy weather day. Let's run through the latest update on timing and totals so you can plan accordingly.

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Timeline

The majority of weather effects from this winter storm will happen in NJ during the daytime hours on Monday.

Between about Midnight and 3 a.m. Monday, first snowflakes will drift into southwestern New Jersey.

Between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m., I think we will be able to declare that "most" of New Jersey is experiencing light to moderate snow.

Between 9 a.m. and Noon, far northern New Jersey will finally see some snowflakes flying around.

The brunt of the storm, with the heaviest snow bands developing around southern New Jersey, will be from the midday to afternoon hours. (I do not want to put definitive times on this segment of the storm, since it's a rather wide window for mesoscale snow bands to form.)

Between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., snow intensity will start to dial back, especially to the north and west.

There is a chance for some redevelopment of snow bands into Monday evening, leading to a prolonged period of snow and accumulation. Especially to the south and east.

Final flakes should exit New Jersey between 10 p.m. Monday and 1 a.m. Tuesday.

Totals

Given the forecast storm track and our current frigid temperatures, this should be an all-snow weather event for New Jersey.

The overall "snowfall sweet spot" for this storm will likely be from northern Virginia to Maryland to Washington D.C. to Delaware, where over a foot of accumulation looks probable. Keep in mind, a shift of the storm track of just 30 miles could change everything here.

The southern edge of New Jersey will be subject to the heaviest snow bands and the longest period of snow falling. Parts of Salem, Cumberland, and Cape May counties should expect a plowable 6 to 9 inches of snow. Not too shabby.

The rest of South Jersey, as far north as Camden and Tuckerton, I am calling for 4 to 6 inches of accumulation. Healthy snowfall, and certainly enough to make roads slippery.

Most of Burlington and Ocean counties fall in a forecast range of 2 to 4 inches of snow. The middle of New Jersey is probably the most difficult to pinpoint here, as there will be a tight gradient between "heavy snow" and "light snow". The advisory issued for this segment of the state is well-placed, cautioning of tricky travel conditions and possible shovelable snow.

The stripe of Central Jersey including Trenton and Long Branch is looking at 1 to 2 inches of total snowfall. I think areas north of the I-195 corridor will fall out of the steadiest snow bands. But "light snow" is not "no snow" — while a full-blown "Snow Day" seems like overkill here, there could still be some icy conditions around by the afternoon.

North Jersey, this ain't your storm. From Flemington and New Brunswick on north, you will probably see periods of light snow on Monday. But little to none of it will stick, especially the farther north in the state you go. A "conversational" coating to 1 inch of snowfall, that's it.

As I have said before, my philosophy in drawing a snow map is to have equal probability of "busting" both high and low. In other words, while I stand by the numbers I have presented here as a realistic and honest appraisal of this storm's potential, I believe there is a chance that each region in the state is "upgraded" to one higher accumulation and/or "downgraded" to one lower accumulation category.

Impacts

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued from 1 a.m. Monday to 1 a.m. Tuesday for southeastern Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem counties. This is "Snow Day" territory, especially given the daytime timing of this storm.

A less urgent, less severe Winter Weather Advisory covers northwestern Burlington and Ocean counties for the same time period. Lighter snow, less accumulation, but still potentially icy conditions.

As you probably know, the biggest impact from this clipper system will be traveling. Roads will become slippery and possibly even impassable for a time. Visibility will be severely reduced during periods of moderate to heavy snow. Flight delays and cancellations are possible, especially at ACY and PHL.

There will be some wind, especially after the snow wraps up Monday night. Gusts to 20+ mph are not enough to cause whiteouts and/or blizzard conditions.

Also, no risk of icing due to freezing rain this time around. I expect this to be an all-snow storm.

Finally, the threat of coastal flooding is minimal. Up to a foot of surge is possible as the storm departs. But that should not be enough to cause widespread water inundation issues along the Jersey Shore.

What's Next?

Temperatures across most of New Jersey are not expected to reach above freezing until Friday, at the earliest. So the snow that falls will probably stick around for quite a while.

Forecast models continue to hint at an even nastier coastal storm arriving Saturday. You may have seen social media-rologists promoting "massive" snow totals of three feet or more. It is total B.S. at this point — it is impossible to produce such a specific forecast almost a week out.

For now, just know 1.) There is the potential for a storm, 2.) It may produce snow, rain, wind, and coastal issues, and 3.) We will continue to watch it.

Rest assured, we will start to focus on the next winter storm around midweek if it will indeed threaten New Jersey. Not before.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.