30s and 40s across NJ this week, watching one little and one big storm system

Our latest deep freeze is over and a warmup has begun. I am happy to report that every day in this forecast features above-freezing temperatures! Tuesday will be pretty cloudy, although calm and quiet during the day. Temperatures will rise from the teens in the morning to the mid 30s in the afternoon. The one thing to watch will be a round of spotty wintry mix showers late Tuesday evening. I'm not worried so much about snow as I am freezing drizzle. There could be some slippery spots around, especially to the north. Wednesday will be bright and almost mild, near 40 degrees, with a stiff breeze. While Thursday and Friday trend cooler in the 30s, we'll be back in the 40s for the weekend. We continue to watch a potential storm system developing for the weekend, but forecast models still haven't settled on miss vs. rain vs. snow yet.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Not as cold, spotty wintry mix

I want to see 40s. That is the benchmark, the long-term average, the normal high temperature here in mid-February. We haven't seen seasonable, near-normal temperatures in almost a month. I don't think we'll make it Tuesday, but Wednesday will at least come close. (And then next week will have a chance at going well above-normal for a few days — I can't wait!)

Tuesday is starting off cold, with temperatures mainly in the teens. Yes, you will be reaching for a winter coat. But it is about 10 degrees "warmer" than the past few days, so already an improvement.

High temperatures Tuesday afternoon are forecast to reach the mid 30s, just above the freezing mark. While sunshine will be limited and skies will be pretty cloudy, the wind will stay light, which makes a big difference in how chilly the air feels. So the afternoon should be OK. I think the daytime hours will stay dry, although the chance of a sprinkle or flurry is not impossible.

The big wrinkle in Tuesday's forecast comes at night, after about 8 or 9 p.m. A weak frontal boundary is expected to spark a line of spotty wintry mix showers, which will travel from northwest to southeast across the state. "Spotty" means light and hit-or-miss, so don't expect much here. "Wintry mix" means you might see snowflakes or raindrops or a little bit of both. I am not worried about snow accumulation. But the worst-case scenario would be for some freezing drizzle, when raindrops freeze on contact with a cold surface. Slippery spots are possible through Tuesday night. The highest chance for light icing would be north of Interstate 78.

Otherwise, Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy. Temperatures will only fall a few degrees overnight, into the lower 30s. It will be our warmest night in several weeks, in fact.

Wednesday NJ weather: Making a run for 40

Wednesday will be a breezy day, but otherwise very good.

Under partly sunny skies, high temperatures will make a run for 40 degrees. (Maybe as warm as 45 degrees in South Jersey.)

Thursday NJ weather: Cooler again

On Thursday, we will get a taste of cooler air again. Not an arctic blast, necessarily. Just a correction back down to the mid 30s for highs. Below normal, but above freezing.

It will remain breezy Thursday, with a mix of sun and clouds. (Probably leaning more on the sun than the clouds.)

Friday NJ weather: Temperatures fluctuate

Friday will be similar to Thursday, but with lighter winds. Sunny and mid 30s.

I think Saturday has the potential to be the nicest day of the week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 40s. What's this, a pleasant weekend day this winter?! What a Valentine's Day treat!

However, we are watching a potential storm system for the second half of the weekend, on Sunday. Models are still wishy-washy about the exact track and impacts of this thing. I will say that arctic air will be retreating — so of all the options on the table, a big snowmaker seems the most unlikely. So I'm leaning toward plain rain or nothing at all. Or maybe more of a wintry mix. It is still five days away. Hopefully we will have a better sense of how things are trending over the next day or two.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.