
NJ weather: Some ups and downs this week, potential weekend mess
The Bottom Line
Hey, what a nice quiet weekend of weather! Especially considering just how cold last week was. We are enjoying a welcome thaw, after an unusually cold early-mid January. While no records were broken, this may go down as NJ's coldest calendar month in about a decade.
It will also go down as one of New Jersey's driest Januarys on record. Top 5 since 1895, at least. Despite a few mini snow events, at least half of the state has been in the "D2 - Severe Drought" category or worse since late October. So going on three months now. We need some serious rain (or snow) soon, or else fire danger and agricultural concerns will start ramping up again.
Overall, this week will be much more comfortable and more seasonable than last week's arctic blast. There will be some ups — with temperatures well in the 40s most days. There will be some downs — a one day arctic blast.
And there is one great uncertainty: A storm system signal at the end of the week, in the Friday-Saturday time frame. The ingredients are not coming together for a massive snow storm. But things could still get messy, with a mix of wintry and wet weather for New Jersey.

Monday
I have no hesitation in calling Monday a pleasant late January day. Yes, it will be cold. Especially in the morning. Yes, you will need a coat. Especially in the morning. But you can't complain too much about another day of seasonable, near-normal temperatures.
We are starting out mainly in the 20s Monday morning. High temperatures will peak around the lower 40s for most of the state Monday afternoon. (The exception: far northern New Jersey will likely get stuck in the mid-upper 30s.)
We should enjoy plentiful sunshine throughout the day, with light breezes and dry weather. Good stuff all around.
Clouds will increase late Monday night, after about Midnight. Low temperatures will dip to a chilly 30 degrees.
Tuesday
One little hiccup comes Tuesday, as a weak cold front causes a few minor changes.
First, there will be a chance of a snow shower Tuesday morning. Time frame is centered right on daybreak, and North Jersey would be the most likely location for snowflakes. Little to no accumulation is expected, although there is a chance an isolated cell becomes squall-ish with elevated wind gusts and reduced visibility.
For the rest of Tuesday, expect a mix of sun and clouds and breezy conditions. Wind gusts may reach 30 mph for a brief time.
High temperatures on Tuesday will slide backward by a few degrees, to the upper 30s or so.
Wednesday
The return of a southwesterly breeze will push temperatures up again. In fact, Wednesday could be the warmest day of the week.
My latest forecast puts Wednesday's high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s, under mostly cloudy skies with breezy conditions. Realistically, if we get enough sunshine poking through the cloud cover, South Jersey could hit 50 degrees for the first time since New Year's Day.
As an arctic cold front approaches, another batch of spotty showers is possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. This looks a bit more widespread than Tuesday's shower chance, but still light and minor. Showers could be snow (especially north) or rain (especially south).
Thursday
Arctic air returns. At least this time around, it will not take hold and linger for days and days on end.
Thursday will be cold and blustery. High temperatures may not make it above the freezing mark for much of the state, forecast to only be in the lower 30s. Plus, the brisk 20+ mph wind will add an extra bite to the cold air.
Typical of cold January days, Thursday will be bright and sunny. And our weather looks otherwise dry and uneventful.
Friday & Beyond
One of the biggest things I look for in forecasting a potential winter storm is consistency. I want to see the same persistent signal or pattern for several model runs in a row. And, especially when that occurs across multiple independent forecast models, that gives me confidence that forecast might come true.
There has been a strong signal for some time that a storm will impact New Jersey next weekend. While we are still in the time frame where details are fuzzy, it is time to start communicating that a period of inclement weather is possible to close out January and begin February.
Having said there, there are multiple options on the table, especially surrounding precipitation type. It is very clear this is not favored to be an all-out "snow storm" — a pocket of warm air bubbling up from the south will force at least a rainy start to this system. And then as temperatures fall, icy mix may become straight snowfall.
The timing is also very much up in the air. The European model favors a Friday rain event, while the GFS is firmly on Saturday as a rain-to-snow storm.
Bottom line: You are going to start to hear some hype about this potential storm, but there's really nothing confident to report right now. While the ingredients are not coming together for a big snow storm, things could still get messy for the first half of the weekend as rain changes to icy mix and then snow. Some accumulation is possible, but the magnitude of snowfall is unclear at this time.
Obviously, this piece of the forecast will be a huge focus and topic of conversation this week. We will, as always, keep you posted.
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Gallery Credit: Katelyn Leboff
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
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