Bright and breezy weather for NJ, watching three scenarios for weekend storm

Wednesday will trend brighter, slightly warmer, and windier than Tuesday. Temperatures are starting the day near the freezing mark, and should climb to around 40 degrees - our warmest day in quite some time. Unfortunately, a prominent wind will gust well over 20 mph at times, preventing me from calling it a truly mild or pleasant day all around. Temperatures will be knocked back to the 30s for Thursday and Friday as cooler air returns. Valentine's Day Saturday looks 'lovely' with sunshine and 40s. And we are closely watching a storm system for late Sunday into Monday. Forecast models still show a spread of potential scenarios ranging from nothing to heavy rain to heavy snow for New Jersey.

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Wednesday NJ weather: Breezy, almost mild

As expected some showers and sprinkles passed through New Jersey late Tuesday night. And now, with temperatures at or just below the freezing mark across most of the state, those droplets have iced over, creating a slippery situation for some. So watch your step and watch your drive early on, especially across the northern third of the state.

High temperatures are forecast to reach about 40 degrees Wednesday afternoon, give or take. Yes, 40s on the temperature map! That will be just shy of seasonal normals.

Unfortunately, the wind will be a bit of a nuisance throughout the day, with regular gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range, peaking in the afternoon. That will make it feel a bit blustery at times.

Otherwise, expect periods of sun and periods of clouds, with dry air and dry weather. The combination of sun and above-freezing temperatures should contribute to good snow and ice melt. (And the aforementioned black ice situation should not be a concern past mid-morning.)

The wind should calm a bit Wednesday evening, as we face another overnight freeze. Wednesday night will be mainly clear and seasonably chilly, with lows in the mid 20s. Wait out for the refreeze, as any puddles or wet surfaces could ice over by Thursday morning.

Thursday NJ weather: Cooler, still breezy

Temperatures will take a step back on Thursday. Not an arctic blast. Just a brief pause in the warmup.

It will still be breezy, but noticeably cooler. High temperatures will only reach the lower to mid 30s this time around.

Expect partly sunny skies. And probably dry weather — the chance of a sprinkle or flurry is not zero, but it is very low.

Friday NJ weather: Calm, still cool

The wind finally calms down for Friday. That will lead to a cold morning, with teens back on the temperature map. The afternoon will fare better, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Mostly sunny skies will again contribute to solid snow melt around the Garden State.

Saturday NJ weather: Lovely Valentine's Day weather

I think Valentine's Day Saturday will be the nicest day of the week. Probably the warmest too, with widespread high temperatures in the 40s. (South Jersey might even have a shot at 50 degrees?)

Sunshine should dominate the sky until some clouds build late-day.

Sunday NJ weather: Possible coastal storm

The forecast for the second half of the weekend gets much murkier, as it is highly dependent on the track of a coastal storm system. I was hoping to have better resolution of this thing now — but the timeline has slid later, with the storm now arriving late Sunday, so there is still a wide variety of solutions among our forecast models.

I think one of three scenarios will probably play out here:

1.) Nothing. Or hardly anything. Most model guidance depicts the storm's energy steering well south and east of New Jersey, keeping most or all precipitation away from us. It might still be cloudy or windy, but mainly dry and snow-free.

2.) Wet. If we end up on the warm side of the storm, a good soaking of 1-2" of rain would be a possibility. This would cause significant snow and ice melt across New Jersey. But it would also raise significant flooding concerns as storm drains and waterways are currently blocked by ice.

3.) Snow. The latest European really goes hard on a wintry solution for New Jersey. But I'm not sure I buy it, as arctic air is really in retreat this week. I would need to see serious run-to-run consistency and other models get on board to believe a full-on snow storm is ahead for New Jersey, especially one with "major" 6+ inch snowfall potential.

So clearly, I am leaning toward the non-wintry #1 or #2 scenarios. Probably more toward a miss or partial miss given what I've seen on the ensemble model products. But let's continue to hold our horses and see how things develop over the next day or two. Again the time frame of interest now is late Sunday into President's Day Monday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.