Wintry weather for NJ Sunday: Morning snow, afternoon sleet, all day mess

The much-anticipated, much-overhyped, multi-impact winter storm has arrived. If you have been following my forecasts for the past several days, the most useful thing I can tell you is that things seem to be running along as expected so far. (For the record, I did not update or change my snow total forecast this morning — I only include it with this post for easy reference.)

Is this the storm of the century, the worst storm New Jersey has ever seen, a head-for-the-hills slobberknocker blockbuster historic record-breaker? No. But it is definitely impactful. Significant. Complicated. And still arguably the biggest winter storm we have seen in many years here in New Jersey, especially given the statewide impact.

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Snow filled in across New Jersey early Sunday morning, and became steady and heavy very quickly. Because of the cold air and cold ground, it stuck and started accumulating immediately. Road conditions are already bad, and continue to get worse.

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect statewide, and will continue until at least early Monday. A warning is serious business, and means travel will be hazardous if not nearly impossible at times due to poor traction and low visibility.

Bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue falling across New Jersey through Sunday morning. Then, as temperatures warm in the mid-atmosphere starting around Noon, a transition from snow to icy mix (mainly sleet) is expected, from south to north. By mid-afternoon, most of the state — at least up to the Interstate 78 corridor — should have switched over to sleet. The southern coast could even warm up enough to see a period of plain rain later on.

Note: Once your location flips from snow to sleet, it probably will not change back again. Sleet does not accumulate the same way as snow — it's ice pellets rather than fluffy ice crystals. So if you catch a lull in the storm or don't mind getting pelted by sleet, it might be a good time to clear off your car and/or to start shoveling.

Precipitation will continue into Sunday evening, before the storm finally tapers off by around Midnight.

Lingering snow showers are possible on Monday. And cleanup will continue too. I expect numerous school closings and delayed openings as a result.

Storm total snowfall will be greater the farther north you go. In North Jersey, I estimate 10 to 16 inches of snow accumulation. There may be some mixing with or changeover to sleet, but it will be a "mainly snow" situation near the top of the state.

For the middle and southwestern corridors of the state, a healthy 6 to 10 inches of snow is expected. Plus, there is a threat for a moderate degree of icing (a quarter-inch or more) due to sleet and possibly some freezing rain. It will not be a full-on "ice storm." But it does pose a serious situation due to the risk of downed trees and power lines, raising the potential for power outages.

Southern and most of coastal New Jersey will be the first to change over to the sleety mix. The southern coast also has the best chance of warming above the freezing mark, leading to a period of rain later on. The initial snowfall will be impactful, but less than the rest of the state, in the 4 to 6 inch neighborhood.

Keep in mind, temperatures are very cold. So certain types of salt and brine will be completely ineffective in lowering the freezing point of the water to keep roads clear.

And temperatures will get even colder this week, likely staying below freezing until sometime the first week of February. The snow that falls and accumulates on Sunday will be here to stay for quite some time!

We are officially in storm mode, with your latest news, weather, and traffic information on-air and online until the final flakes fly. Stay informed and join the conversation. And thanks so much for following along.

Be safe and stay warm out there. And enjoy the snow! (And sleet and rain!)

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.