NJ’s big blustery cooldown is here: Falling into the 30s with rain and snow

After four days of springlike and even summerlike warmth, Thursday is New Jersey's big transition day. And our weather is going to be tumultuous, to say the least. While Wednesday afternoon was as warm as 85 degrees with severe thunderstorms, Thursday afternoon will be more like 35 degrees with snow around New Jersey. Baseline conditions for Thursday will be windy, with temperatures falling from the 60s early on into the 30s by the afternoon. Scattered rain will push in by late morning, likely changing to wintry mix or snow in the afternoon. Only light accumulations are expected, given our warm/wet ground, but there could be slippery spots around and reduced visibility at times. Thursday night will be freezing cold, with low temperatures around 30 degrees. And then we settle into a seasonably cool weather pattern, with highs in the mid 40s for Friday, near 50 for Saturday, and in the 50s for Sunday. A brisk wind and generally dry weather will come with each of those days. Next chance of rain will arrive Sunday night.

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Thursday NJ weather: Wind, cold, rain, snow

As of this writing (7 a.m.), the wind is just now starting to kick up across New Jersey that will transport colder air into New Jersey throughout Thursday. Temperatures in the early morning hours have been holding around 60 degrees — certainly a mild start, by mid-March standards. But we will end up deep in the 30s by late afternoon — a return to chilly, blustery weather and a vast departure from earlier this week.

Wind gusts to about 30 mph are expected through Thursday morning. Those will calm somewhat through the afternoon, and then lighten up even more after sunset.

Meanwhile, scattered rain will sweep into New Jersey starting around late morning. The risk of severe weather this time around is nil — it will just be a smattering of raindrops. At first.

Rain looks to become steadier in the afternoon. Plus, temperatures descend into the 30s by around 1 or 2 p.m., the rain will likely transition to wintry mix or straight snow.

Forecast models really pump out the snow through the afternoon hours, with the NAM even suggesting upwards of 2 or 3 inches of total snowfall. But that is what falls from the sky — not necessarily what accumulates. It is going to be very hard for that snow to stick to the relatively warm, wet ground. So I am not worried about accumulations, other than some slushy slippery spots into the Thursday evening commute. Reduced visibility during snow is possible too.

I think it is telling that the National Weather Service has issued no watches, warnings, or advisories for mainland New Jersey Thursday, despite the wind and the cold and the rain and the snow. There is a lot going on — but none of those factors are expected to be hazardous to ring alarm bells.

Any snow or rain should exit New Jersey in the early evening hours, by around 6 p.m. And then skies will clear and winds will continue to calm overnight. Low temperatures will dip to around 30 degrees. A light freeze is expected for most of New Jersey.

Friday NJ weather: Feeling like March

Friday settles down, as we return to the cool side. It will be a breezy day with a mix of clouds and sun. High temperatures will be limited to the mid 40s, about 5 degrees below normal for mid March.

A storm system will be passing just north of New Jersey. Some sprinkles and flurries will probably clip approximately the northern third of the state at some point during the day. Nothing to write home about though, and no travel impacts are expected.

Saturday NJ weather: Sunny but windy

Saturday should be mostly sunny, allowing for seasonable high temperatures on either side of 50 degrees. So far so good.

Winds will be pretty strong though, kicking up to 25 mph. That will definitely be a nuisance throughout the day.

The combination of wind and low humidity will also contribute to elevated wildfire danger too. There's not much we can do about that — just something to keep in mind.

Sunday NJ weather: Warming up then cooling down

Temperatures on Sunday will push into the 50s, with increasing clouds. The daytime hours should stay dry, making for a reasonably pleasant March day.

Our next storm system setup will come in two parts. A piece of coastal energy will drive in spotty showers from Sunday evening through early Monday morning. And then a strong cold front will spawn a line of thunderstorms Monday evening. In the middle, Monday will be cloudy and mild with temperatures in the 60s.

The rest of next week will trend cooler, with highs probably in the 40s. New Jersey's weather should stay relatively quiet as we approach the first day of Spring next Friday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.