Another warmup is coming, NJ — but first some unsettled, cloudy, damp weather

The first workweek of March will be an unsettled one. And unfortunately, the combination of clouds, rain, and on-shore breezes will prevent warmer air from really moving in until next weekend. Monday turns cloudy, with chilly high temperatures only in the 30s. A few snow showers are possible in far South Jersey, along the Delaware Bay only. Things could get a little messy on Tuesday morning, as spotty showers could contain some icy mix - the best chance for slippery spots will be along the western and northern edges of the state. Then pockets of steadier rain take over through Tuesday afternoon and evening. Occasional showers are expected on Wednesday and Thursday too, as high temperatures warm into the 50s. If all goes well, by next weekend, we should be talking about 60s and 70s around New Jersey (at least temporarily).

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Monday NJ weather: Cloudy and chilly

New Jersey's big weather story for Monday will be cold temperatures, as most of the state will miss out on raindrops and snowflakes.

A storm system passing just to our south may be close enough to throw some snow showers toward the southern edge of the state. That is the area along the Delaware Bay — Salem, Cumberland, and Cape May counties only. Substantial accumulations and travel issues are not expected — just some flakes flying around.

Farther north, early sunshine Monday will give way to clouds. The northern half of the state could see some breaks in those clouds late on Monday.

High temperatures will only reach the mid 30s at best Monday afternoon. That is considerably below normal for this time of year, by 10 to 15 degrees.

Monday night stays quiet, with clouds, and low temperatures in the upper 20s or so.

Tuesday NJ weather: Icy mix then rain

Tuesday will get a bit messy, then it will turn pretty wet.

Spotty showers are expected to develop just before daybreak Tuesday morning, traveling from south to north across New Jersey. Given those AM temperatures at or just below freezing, these showers could take the form of snow or icy mix. (That would be some combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.)

Up to an inch of snow and a glaze of ice accumulation will be possible Tuesday through midday, especially along the western and northern edges of the state. Especially west of the NJ Turnpike and north of Interstate 80. This is not a case where you need to change or cancel plans — but you may need to watch your step and your drive carefully, with slippery spots possible if not likely for a few hours.

By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will warm enough for any wintry precipitation to turn to plain rain. That rain is likely to become steadier for a time through the afternoon and evening hours. Everyone in New Jersey is likely to get at least a little bit wet.

Wednesday NJ weather: Warming up, but still unsettled

By Wednesday, we will finally start to see some improvements on thermometers around New Jersey. But we will still see mostly cloudy skies. And sporadic showers — although beyond the early morning hours, those raindrops should be much more hit-or-miss.

Look for high temperatures on Wednesday around 50 degrees. Just above normal for early March.

Thursday NJ weather: Still some showers around

Thursday continues the unsettled weather, but at least high temperatures will push into the 50s amid cloudy skies. It looks like we will see one batch of showers in the morning, followed by scattered showers and even some thunderstorms at night.

When all is said and done, this week's rainfall will not add up to "heavy" drought relief. We might see an inch of rain in spots. Just damp and healthy.

Once our weather dries out and clears out for the first full weekend of March, there should be nothing in the way of warming things up. I do think some forecast models and some forecasters are pulling the trigger too quickly on widespread 70s. Just like a winter storm, forecasts beyond five days have a certain low confidence to them. Once we can see clearly beyond the series of storm systems that depart Friday morning, we should have a better idea of just how warm it will get. Definitely 60s for a few days. And hopefully some 70s. I say we deserve it.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.