NJ’s next arctic blast arrives later this week, and it is going to bite

Given all the nasty, wintry weather that could happen here in mid-January, I think it's fair to call Tuesday another pleasant day. Expect a chilly start in the 20s and a seasonable finish in the mid 40s. Sunshine early on will give way to clouds and a bit of a breeze through the afternoon. Clouds will really fill in Wednesday, with a few sprinkles and flurries around. And then our next blast of arctic air arrives Thursday. While it could come with some spotty rain and snow showers, the cold and wind will be the big story here - temperatures will be in the 20s and wind chills in the teens all day Thursday. Still no "big snow" in the immediate forecast.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Another reasonably pleasant day

I am often asked what my "favorite" kind of weather is. And my standard answer: Normal. I like it seasonably hot in the summer. And seasonably cool in the winter. So here you go! January is known not just for massive snow storms in New Jersey, but also for brilliant sunshine, crisp air, and refreshingly cool air. And that is exactly what is in the forecast once again for Tuesday.

We start with another "bundle up" kind of morning, with most temperatures in the 20s. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will end up in the mid 40s. That is a few degrees warmer than Monday, and a few degrees above the long-term seasonal averages for this time of year.

The morning and midday hours should stay bright and sunny, before fair-weather clouds fill-in later on. The afternoon may get a bit breezy too. But the entire day should stay dry.

Clouds will continue to increase Tuesday night. Low temperatures are forecast to dip into the mid 30s overnight.

Wednesday NJ weather: Lots of clouds, warmest day

Wednesday will be an OK day too — just mostly cloudy to overcast.

High temperatures will reach for about 45 to 50 degrees. Any day we make a run for 50 degrees in January is a positive.

There could be a few flurries and sprinkles (depending on the exact timing and temperatures), especially around the northern edge of New Jersey. Overall, not a big deal — just worth mentioning.

The slightly better chance of precipitation will come late Wednesday night. (Keep reading for more details.)

Thursday NJ weather: Windy and cold

Thursday is a big transition day, as a strong cold front ushers in the coldest air we have seen in New Jersey since December.

Step one will be a round of showers early Thursday morning. Model guidance disagrees regarding the spread (spotty vs. scattered) and type (rain vs. snow) of that precipitation. Once again, I am leaning toward a "no big deal" scenario here, favoring a quick round of light rain followed by some light snowflakes. However, at the same time, I do recognize the possibility of a quick coating of snow accumulation somewhere in the state. That may be enough to produce pockets of low visibility and/or slick spots — something we will have to watch carefully.

The bigger story on Thursday by far will be the chill in the air. Temperatures will descend into the 20s and stay there for the majority of the day. Plus, a gusty wind will push the wind chill (the "feels like" temperature) into the teens. That cold air is going to bite — we are definitely back to bundling up in our warmest winter gear on Thursday.

Friday NJ weather: Still cold

Keep in mind, fresh cold and windy conditions carry a side effect: the chance for occasional snow showers and snow squalls. Nothing widespread or spectacularly impactful is expected. But there could be some surprise pockets of low visibility and slick coatings of snow. It's not something I can necessarily forecast — but it is always something we should always be vigilant for this time of year when the weather turns cold and blustery.

Friday stays cold and blustery, with high temperatures only around the freezing mark in the lower 30s. Expect partly sunny skies.

Saturday will be a little better, as we taste slightly warmer air. Temperatures should temporarily rebound to the 40s.

And then Sunday crashes to the lower 30s again (at best) with the return of frigid air. That is likely where we will stay through early next week.

As I said at the onset of this article, there are no "big snow" chances on the horizon. Too cold, too dry, too quiet. Long-range models are picking up on something active once we get into the last week of January. But the timing and resolution of that is very fuzzy and uncertain this far out.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.