NJ turns wet again by Friday, four scenarios for powerful weekend coastal storm

UPDATE... This article is outdated...

For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

UPDATE as of 2:30 p.m. Thursday...

ORIGINAL POST from 8:39 a.m. Thursday...

Thursday will still be dreary and "blah", but at least it will not be as damp as Wednesday. Early patchy fog will lift by mid-morning, yielding cloudy skies and cool temperatures in the 40s. A few sprinkles may creep in, followed by outright showers by evening. Friday will be a wet day for all of New Jersey, with a period of rain from morning through at least midday. About a half-inch of beneficial rain will help with continued snow melt and drought concerns. The one issue to watch will be a limited window Friday morning for wintry mix and light icing in North Jersey. Saturday will be pleasant and quiet. And then New Jersey will end up on the northwestern edge of a powerful coastal storm. We are watching the potential for significant snow, wintry mix, and/or wind from Sunday into Monday. Latest forecast models show total snowfall for New Jersey between 0 and 24 inches. Needless to say, forecast uncertainty remains high, although we can make some general statements about the forecast and game out some possible scenarios.

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Thursday NJ weather: Still dreary, not as damp

Thursday will not be a great weather day. But you can stash the umbrella for a few hours at least, and enjoy what are (on paper) seasonable temperatures.

I have seen reports of patchy fog around New Jersey Thursday morning. It is thick in spots, but not everywhere. And this time around, it should lift by mid-morning. So that is already an improvement compared to Wednesday, when fog and mist hung around through midday.

Expect cloudy skies and a cool, raw feel to the air. Temperatures will rise from the 30s in the morning to the lower to mid 40s in the afternoon. Winds stay light and our weather will stay mostly dry. I can't rule out some sprinkles Thursday afternoon to the south.

Outright rain showers will come back into play Thursday evening, after about 6 p.m., for approximately the southern half of the state. The big widespread push of rain from our next storm system will hold off until much later, closer to daybreak Friday morning. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the mid 30s or so.

Friday NJ weather: Rain returns

Everyone in New Jersey will get wet on Friday. So it's umbrellas up and windshield wipers on. Total rainfall will end up around a half-inch, give or take. Good healthy rainfall, helping with snow melt and drought relief. And probably not enough to cause ponding and flooding.

Rain is most likely from the morning through early afternoon, from about 4 a.m. to 2 p.m. The afternoon will trend drier.

There is one extra little wrinkle here. Given that early morning arrival time, parts of North Jersey may be cold enough for some wintry mix rather than straight rain. I believe this is possible north of the Interstate 78 corridor. Realistically, this is most likely around the higher elevation areas along and north of Interstate 80. A bit of light icing could make for some slippery spots for a few hours.

The limited icing potential is not a big deal, but worth mentioning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Sussex County only from 7 p.m. Thursday to Noon Friday. I would not be surprised if the National Weather Service adds a county or two to that advisory as time goes on — they generally play things overly cautiously when any icing is possible.

Despite thick clouds and the rain, high temperatures on Friday will reach about 40 degrees to the north and 50 degrees to the south.

Saturday NJ weather: A decent weather day

In between storm systems, Saturday should be an almost-pleasant weather day.

Expect a mix of clouds and sun, allowing high temperatures to reach about 45 to 50 degrees. A bright sky, light wind, and 50 degrees would feel wonderful.

Latest model guidance does suggest a shower may pop up Saturday afternoon, so I've had to add that slight chance to the forecast.

Sunday NJ weather: Let's talk coastal storm scenarios

Excitement (and hype) is starting to build again, surrounding our next chance of wintry weather this weekend, specifically Sunday into Monday. New Jersey will end up on the northwestern edge of a powerful coastal storm, potentially driving in significant snow, rain, wind, and/or storm surge.

This kind of storm is a royal pain in the behind. It is a classic coastal storm, where the storm track dictates exactly what kind of weather impacts we are going to see here in New Jersey, including how much snow.

And with over three days to go before the storm arrives, we are still at the point where I have to throw my hands in the air and say "I don't know!" Forecast models still paint a wide variety of solutions for this system. Looking at raw snowfall, for instance, accumulations literally range from zero to 24 inches. So there's your forecast — nothing to two feet of snow!

I'm mostly joking there. While I am not confident enough to put definitive numbers on this forecast, we can talk in terms of scenarios. And I'll keep it very simple this time around, with four potential outcomes based on how close the storm track gets to NJ: Nothing, A Little Bit, Something, and Everything.

Storm Scenario #1: Nothing
A complete miss is still a possibility, although the 00Z UKMET model stands alone in offering such an outcome. The storm would pass just south of New Jersey, with the heaviest snow falling over the Atlantic Ocean. We would still face some gusty winds and possibly some coastal impacts from the storm, but little to no snow or travel impacts. Total Snowfall: 0 to 1 inch. Forecast Probability: 20%.

Storm Scenario #2: A Little Bit
If the storm comes close enough to offer a glancing blow to New Jersey or if temperatures end up too warm for an all-snow situation, we would experience some wintry weather. But it would be far from a worst-case scenario. Again, I think wind and coastal impacts would be a possibility, although this track would probably come with a weaker storm overall. This solution is currently projected by the almighty European model, in addition to the German ICON model. Total Snowfall: 0 to 4 inches, with the biggest totals in the middle of the state. Forecast Probability: 30%.

Storm Scenario #3: Something
Now we're getting into the sweet spot, as temperatures stay cold enough for snow with a much stronger and closer storm system. So heavy snow bands make it to New Jersey. This would resemble a classic coastal storm, with the biggest snow totals to the south and east of the NJ Turnpike corridor. However, we would still be on the edge of the storm. So North Jersey totals would be minimal. And coastal snowfall would not be as extreme as they could be. Once again, we would have to be aware of potential wind and surge issues. This is where the up-and-coming Euro-AI and Canadian GDPS models currently land. Total Snowfall: 2 to 10 inches, north to south. Forecast Probability: 30%.

Storm Scenario #4: Everything
This is the blockbuster storm. The worst case scenario. The kaboom. The epic blizzard that everyone remembers for years to come. The "bread and milk" storm that shuts down much of the state for days. The solution that the GFS model currently shows for the Jersey Shore. And only the GFS, which is well-known for going absolutely bonkers with winter storm forecasts like this. I would need a lot more corroborating evidence before pushing out a full-blown "snow bomb" forecast in this category. But it is on the table. Total Snowfall: 2 to 24 inches, northwest to southeast. Forecast Probability: 20%.

The Bottom Line
There are still more than 72 hours to go before first flakes, which is an eternity in winter weather forecasting. This thing will start to come together now, and we will figure it out. We just have to be patient.

In the scenarios I have listed above, the most likely truth is probably somewhere in the middle. By the probabilities I have estimated, there is a total 80% chance of getting something substantial (A Little Bit, Something, or Everything) in New Jersey. At the same time, there is an 80% chance of not getting the worst-case scenario (Nothing, A Little Bit, or Something). And I've purposefully split the odds 50/50 between a significant storm (Something, Everything) and insignificant blip (A Little Bit, Nothing). For now — we will update these scenarios and probabilities as more data and insight come along.

The bottom line is this: I would personally start thinking carefully about any travel or outdoor plans for Sunday into Monday. Especially the closer you are to southern and coastal New Jersey.

I may have a weather blog update Thursday afternoon. I will definitely have a full update by the 8 a.m. hour Friday morning.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.