NJ’s heat wave turns less tropical Monday although spot thunderstorms return

The Bottom Line

Monday is Jersey heat wave day No. 5 of 6. Although at this point, it is more of a “technical” heat wave as not everyone in the state will hit 90 degrees. And the humidity now is much better and less tropical than it was late last week. So it is not “dangerous” heat, but more typical, normal summertime heat we are facing this week. Highs will be near 90 degrees for both Monday and Tuesday. Each day will feature a chance for late-day thunderstorms, which could produce localized downpours and gusty winds. By Wednesday, the heat wave will be over, as high temperatures descend to the 80s. Although I cannot rule out isolated to spotty shower activity through the second half of the week, there are no big, bad organized storm systems heading for New Jersey through the start of next weekend.

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Weather Hazards

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the urban corridor of northeastern New Jersey until 7 p.m. Monday, as the heat index — the “feels like” or “apparent” temperature — flirts with the upper 90s. The rest of the state will fall below advisory criteria, although it will still be a very warm week. Keep cool, stay hydrated, and take care of yourself.

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is back for Monday too. These storms could have some teeth, with a wind, hail, and flooding risk painted over New Jersey. The window between when storms arrive (around dinnertime) and when they fizzle (around sunset) is narrow. So this is not an all-day storm threat. But it is still important to keep an eye on the sky and see what Mother Nature churns up this time around.

Heavy rain, gusty winds, hail, and lightning are all on the table through Monday evening. There are no big, bad organized storm systems in the five-day forecast, but hit-or-miss summertime thunderstorms can still briefly cause problems.

Climatological Context

August 10 is the 222nd day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 85 to 86 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 66 to 69 degrees.

August is, on average, New Jersey’s second hottest and second wettest month of the year.

Monday

At this point, this is just a "technical" heat wave. Not everyone in New Jersey will see 90+ degrees Monday. But the heat rolls on, for the fifth day in a row.

Monday starts as New Jersey’s coolest morning in five days, since the heat wave began. That is a clear sign that the humidity has relaxed. Temperatures are in the 60s and 70s across the state, and the air feels quite a bit less tropical than it was just 24 to 48 hours ago.

So instead of calling Monday “hot and humid,” let’s go with “very warm and sticky.” There is a difference between dangerous heat, like late last week, and more typical, normal summertime heat, like Monday.

Expect sun with passing clouds and high temperatures on either side of 90 degrees. Still very summerlike. Stay cool, stay hydrated.

The big question will be late-day thunderstorms, likely popping up around dinnertime Monday. Any spot storm that develops could produce heavy rain, wind, hail, and lightning. Eyes on the sky, and be prepared to head indoors if things start to darken up and/or you can hear thunder.

Showers and thunderstorms may linger through Monday evening. Monday night will be partly cloudy and fairly muggy, with lows averaging lower 70s across the state.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be the grand finale of New Jersey’s six-day heat wave, going out with a whimper instead of a bang.

(In case you are keeping score, this is the fifth heat wave of the year and tied for the longest of the year. And yes, there is still plenty more summer left to go.)

Tuesday will bring a mix of sun and clouds, with highs again around 90 degrees.

Evening thunderstorms will be possible again.

Wednesday

By Wednesday, the heat wave is over.

High temperatures will settle back into the mid 80s, right on the normal for mid August.

Skies will be partly sunny, and the overall weather pattern looks calm and relatively pleasant. (Although in typical August fashion, a stray shower can not be ruled out.)

Thursday & Beyond

Thursday goes mostly cloudy, with highs between 85 and 90 degrees. That is on the hot side of normal, but no reason to ring alarm bells.

Daily isolated to spotty batches of rain may pop up at times. But again, there are no big, bad organized storm systems in sight through the start of next weekend. Just some hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms. The usual summertime stuff.

Our next chance for widespread rain might be Sunday. We will see how that system continues to develop.

The tropics are firing up a little bit, with the strongest tropical wave in months coming off the west coast of Africa. We will see if anything comes of it in the coming weeks. Otherwise, hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin remains suppressed for now, even though New Jersey is exactly one month away from the historical peak of hurricane season.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.