Latest update on Friday’s rain and Sunday’s precarious winter storm for NJ

UPDATE... This article is outdated...

For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

UPDATE as of 2:20 p.m. Friday...

ORIGINAL POST from 8:48 a.m. Friday...

Friday, New Jersey gets soaked — an inclement day resulting in more good snow melt and drought relief. Prime time for steady rain will be from early morning through about lunchtime, with lingering drizzle and fog through the afternoon. Those in far northern New Jersey will have to watch for wintry mix and slippery spots, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Sussex and western Passaic counties only. We will clear out a bit Friday night, setting up a pleasant day Saturday. Expect a mix of sun and clouds and highs near 50. Then a powerful but complicated coastal storm will fly-by the Jersey Shore Sunday into Monday, and it does look like everyone in New Jersey will see some wintry impacts. Exact snowfall totals are still very difficult to pinpoint at this time, but significant travel impacts are possible. Winds will become gusty with coastal flooding concerns by Sunday night too.

Get our free mobile app

Friday NJ weather: Wet

As of this writing (7 a.m. Friday), it is already raining steadily across New Jersey. And Friday morning will stay wet, with pockets of moderate to heavy rain sliding through the state. We will see about a half-inch of total rainfall statewide, give or take. You will have to dodge puddles and use the windshield wipers, and you might even hear some rumbles of thunder.

The only special concern from Friday morning's storm system is in far northern New Jersey, among the hilltops along and north of Interstate 80. The temperature around Sussex County has been holding at 31 degrees so far this morning — just below the freezing mark. That is where it is just barely cold enough for wintry mix — snow and sleet and rain — to make for slippery, sloppy driving conditions. This should be very limited in geography and in time, but is definitely something to be aware of if your travels take you through the coldest corners of New Jersey Friday morning.

By midday (Noon) Friday, steady rain should exit the Garden State. And we will be left with only lingering showers and drizzle into the afternoon. Patchy dense fog may develop later too.

High temperatures on Friday will have quite the range, from the upper 30s (north) to lower 50s (southwest).

As we continue to dry out Friday night, skies will clear a little. I expect conditions will still feel pretty damp. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to dip into the mid 30s or so. A flash freeze is unlikely.

Saturday NJ weather: Nice

Aside from a slight shower chance, Saturday looks like a pretty nice day. We should see a mix of sun and clouds. (Leaning toward sunshine in the morning, then clouds in the afternoon.) And high temperatures will push back toward 50 degrees.

Sunday and Monday NJ weather: Wintry and windy

Our next storm system setup will arrive Sunday, and it has the potential to bring significant wintry impacts to New Jersey. But I want to stress yet again that there is a reason I am not putting definitive numbers on the forecast yet. It's not a slam dunk — what we see is going to be very dependent on the exact storm track. And forecast models continue to paint widely divergent solutions for where the coastal low will track, how strong it will get, and what New Jersey's resultant weather will be.

Scenario Update

In Thursday morning's weather blog entry, I proposed four possible scenarios for Sunday's storm. We can basically narrow that down to two now, and I would amend the probabilities as follows:

—Nothing... 5% chance
—A Little Bit... 40% chance
—Something... 45% chance
—Everything... 10% chance

So the outside extremes — the zero and the 24" — are even more unlikely to occur now, in my eyes. I still have to keep that blockbuster blizzard idea in the back of my mind, because the GFS model has been remarkably consistent in showing that solution all week. If other guidance starts to come around to the same idea, I might have to jump on board, resulting in an incredible success and an incredible storm.

But I am strongly leaning middle-of-the road here. Unfortunately, those two middle scenarios are vastly different from each other. Mainly because there are really two elements at play: the main coastal low, and an inland piece of energy. No matter how far away the coastal storm tracks, the inland disturbance will probably still bring us some snow. That's an important factor in this forecast.

Storm Timeline

As it stands now, your Sunday morning plans are probably OK.

Even Sunday afternoon could be salvaged, especially the farther north in New Jersey you are. The later it gets, the more likely you are to see snow develop.

If there is a brunt to this storm — and remember, heavy snow is not necessarily guaranteed — it would be Sunday evening through the overnight. In a worst-case scenario, snowfall rates may exceed an inch an hour leading to very challenging travel conditions.

Snowfall intensity would dial back Monday morning, ending completely by midday. If the snowiest solutions play out, I would expect widespread school delays and closings for Monday.

Snow Accumulations

Given the uncertainty and wide spread of model solutions that remain on the table, I am still not comfortable drawing a definitive snow map at this time. I have opted for a broad impacts map instead, to pinpoint who is most prone to seeing heavy snow if it develops.

I believe everyone in New Jersey has a shot at 1 to 4 inches of fresh snow from Sunday into Monday. In the red area, if the coastal low is close enough, I would not rule out snowfall of 6, 8, 10 inches or more.

Temperatures will be in the mid 30s early on Sunday, so initial rain and mixing could get in the way of those totals along the coast too. Just something else we will have to consider and factor in to the forecast going forward.

Other Impacts

As the coastal low strengthens off-shore Sunday night, strong east-northeast winds will kick up too. Top gusts will likely reach 40 mph inland and 50 mph along the coast. Downed trees and power outages are possible, in addition to blowing snow leading to reduced visibility.

That wind will also surge some ocean water toward our coast. Initial surge models are a little scary and are hopefully overblown. I'll wait for the actual tidal guidance to come out before guessing at projected flooding levels for Sunday night and Monday.

Behind the storm, it is also going to get very cold. So wind chills on Monday are going to be in the 20s. Those will likely dip into the singles and teens by Monday night.

Action Steps

My best advice for this weekend's storm is two fold.

First, keep your Sunday and Monday plans as flexible as possible. I know, that is often easier said than done. But I said earlier this week that we would not have a good handle on this forecast until the very last minute. And I'm telling you again, we may not have confident numbers to share until the last 24 hours before the storm arrives. It's just the nature of these "track-wiggling" coastal storm systems.

Second, please keep a close eye and ear on the forecast throughout the weekend. Things will change and evolve and update — that is how forecasts work. As the storm gets closer, our data gets better and clearer, and therefore so does our forecast. Again, this is how this works — winter storm forecasting is an evolution, not a "one and done" proposition.

I may or may not publish an update Friday afternoon — it depends what forecast models do later on. I will definitely have an update Saturday morning. And then definitely one more Sunday morning, just before the first flakes arrive. I will also lead our team coverage on the radio this weekend, as we help guide you through the storm until the final flakes fall.

Is This The End of Winter?

I have heard some call this winter's last gasp, eagerly looking forward to warmer spring days ahead.

Are you kidding me? It's only February, folks.

While we could see some spurts of warmth and rain next week, there are still additional snow chances on the horizon. And March is a notorious month for volatile weather — on average, our 4th snowiest month of the year.

I don't bang the gavel on snow season until we reach the actual astronomical first day of Spring. That is March 20th this year. Historically, climatologically, that is when the threat for major snow (6+ inches) goes way down.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.