Complicated winter storm is here, NJ: What to expect Tuesday

UPDATE... This article is outdated...

For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

Happy Snow Day, New Jersey! We first started talking about this storm system just over a week ago. Since then, there have been constant twists and turns. I think we can safely call it New Jersey's biggest snow storm in over two years.

Honestly, I am still not confident about how this complicated storm will play out Tuesday. A few surprises are pretty much a guarantee. We are in "nowcasting" mode now — if you have to be out and about Tuesday, you need to stay extra alert to changing weather and road conditions.

Since I have been talking ad nauseum about this winter storm for so long, I just want to run through 10 quick bullet points with my latest thoughts.

1.) General timeline... As of this writing (7 a.m.), the rain-snow line has progressed to about the I-195 corridor. Right on schedule. It will continue sinking south, as temperatures continue to drop. By late morning (10 or 11 a.m.), most if not all of New Jersey will be seeing snow fall from the sky.

2.) The brunt... Meanwhile, we are seeing bands of heavy precipitation develop, as low pressure intensifies off the coast. The brunt of the storm, with the heaviest, most widespread precipitation, coincides with Tuesday morning's commute.

3.) Snow totals (North)... Model guidance has calmed on the maximum snowfall potential in North Jersey. I think we will see a wide swath of 4 to 8 inches from Mercer and Monmouth counties northward, with locally higher amounts. I would not rule out higher double-digit snowfall (10+ inches), but it looks to be the exception and not the rule. (Note: I no longer create nor publish my own NJ snow forecast map once a storm has started, as it gets very confusing.)

4.) Snow totals (South)... From coastal Monmouth to Ocean to southern Mercer counties, down the I-295 corridor, I think we could see a healthy 2 to 4 inches of snow by the time this thing wraps up. Closer to the south coast, maybe a slushy inch or two.

5.) Advisories... A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the northern half of the state until Tuesday afternoon, warning of downright dangerous travel conditions. A Winter Weather Advisory covers the I-195 and I-295 corridors, with treacherous travel expected.

6.) Coastal flooding... As this storm system really fires up and spawns a strong northeasterly wind, we will see about 2 feet of ocean water surge toward the coast. Tuesday morning's high tide cycle is expected to crest over "moderate" flood stage, which is pretty serious. We will see one or two rounds of residual flooding Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

7.) Wind and cold... Obviously, to enable rain to change to snow, cold air is "whooshing" into New Jersey too. It's back to winter, folks. Gusts to 40 mph are possible along the coast as the storm rages on.

8.) School closings and delays... Yup, we got 'em. Check out our list.

9.) Be careful shoveling... This is heavy, wet snow. It will be difficult to shovel and plow. Please be very careful and don't overexert yourself.

10.) Beware the refreeze... Afternoon temperatures should recover to the upper 30s to around 40 degrees, under clearing skies. If we get some sunshine, especially on blacktop surfaces, snowmelt is possible. However, as temperatures plunge below freezing again Tuesday night, anything wet or slushy is apt to freeze to solid ice. Expect new slippery spots galore Wednesday morning.

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What's Next?

Once we put this messy winter storm in the rearview mirror, our weather will calm down and chill out.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny, but blustery. A gusty northwest wind will keep a definite chill in the air. High temperatures will only reach the mid 30s or so.

Thursday will progress from sun back to clouds. There is a chance of a rain or snow shower Thursday evening, but it does not look to amount to much. Highs push into the lower 40s.

Friday features another shot of reinforcing cold air, pushing temps back down to the upper 30s.

And then our next chance of snow/rain will be on Saturday. Not a slam dunk, as the European model shows a miss to the south. Just gives us our next thing to watch.

There is one consistent theme in the forecast over the next 7 to 10 days: Below-normal temperatures. Welcome back to winter, New Jersey.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.