Calendar says March, thermometer says May, but only for two more days

I am happy to pass along that if you liked Monday's spectacularly sunny, warm, springlike weather, Tuesday will bring more of the same across New Jersey! We will see some subtle changes on Wednesday, as clouds roll in alongside a few spot showers. Thursday is our big cold front day, as a round of morning showers and thunderstorms is followed by wind and temperatures tumbling from the 60s to the 40s. By Friday, it'll feel much more seasonable, with highs only in the mid 40s — a full 30 degrees cooler than earlier in the week. Good ol' turbulent March weather.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Spectacularly springlike

While Tuesday morning temperatures are again in the chilly 40s, highs will surge into the lower to mid 70s away from the coast Tuesday afternoon.

Let me put this ridiculous daytime warmth into perspective with three comparisons:

First, the record high temperature for this date across all three of our climate reporting stations (Newark, Trenton, and Atlantic City) is 81 degrees, set ten years ago in 2016. It could be close, with those highs well into the 70s — likely the warmest day of the week by a couple of degrees.

Second, we are running about 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. That means this is more unusual, more off the mark, than the extreme cold streak was 4 to 6 weeks ago. In the opposite direction, of course — that was about 20 degrees below normal for early February.

Third, mid 70s would be typical high temperatures at what point of the year? Late May. Memorial Day Weekend. Besides the chilly mornings and the chilly coast, this is typical MDW weekend weather. Incredible.

There is a bit of fog to start the day, then sunshine will win out from late morning through the afternoon. Expect only a light breeze and dry weather throughout your Tuesday. Enjoy another beautiful springlike day!

Tuesday night stays quiet and pleasant, although clouds and fog will roll in eventually. It will not be as cool as the past few nights, with low temperatures around 50 degrees.

Wednesday NJ weather: Clouds and spot showers

Wednesday stays warm, but you will notice some subtle changes by the afternoon.

Skies will become mostly cloudy across New Jersey. But that will not prevent temperatures from reaching about 70 degrees. (Some forecast models put highs right back in the 70s, but I have leaned lower due to the abundant cloud cover.)

In addition, a few spot showers or thunderstorms may pop up throughout the day. Very much isolated, hit or miss type stuff. But obviously any raindrops would interfere in your enjoyment of the springlike warmth. I wouldn't even rule out a ruble of thunder or localized downpour.

Thursday NJ weather: Cold front day

You knew the warm weather would not last forever. And oh boy, here comes the inevitable cold front. Thursday is our big transition day. And it is going to hurt.

Temperatures in the early morning hours — through about 5 or 6 a.m. — will probably still be in the 60s. That is when our cold front will start to push into the western reaches of the state.

First effects will be some rain. It is not going to rain all day, but you will find scattered showers and thunderstorms generally progressing from northwest to southeast through New Jersey between the morning and midday hours on Thursday. Total rainfall will likely stay below a quarter-inch. There is a marginal risk for severe weather, with the Storm Prediction Center posting an elevated threat for wind, hail, and an isolated tornado for southern and western NJ.

As we dry out Thursday afternoon, a brisk wind will kick up and temperatures will be tumbling. We will be done with 60s and 70s — I expect thermometers to be in the lower 40s by late afternoon, around 4 or 5 o'clock. What a big difference.

If precipitation lingers long enough, there could be some snowflakes around. Some forecast models pump out accumulating snow potential in South Jersey, but I do not buy it given the warm, wet antecedent ground condition. The bigger deal here will be the sharply colder temperatures.

Thursday night will bring a return of freezing temperatures, as we bottom out around 30 degrees. It will likely be New Jersey's coldest night in over a week. But only slightly below normal for this time of year — it is still technically winter, after all.

Friday NJ weather: Cool and breezy

Friday brings a return to the cool side, with high temperatures only reaching the mid 40s amid a continuing chilly breeze. Skies will be partly sunny, and we could see some flurries flying around.

Warmer air returns for the weekend though. Saturday should hit 50 degrees and Sunday will be closer to 60.

We will have to watch a storm system for early next week that could get a bit messy. Once again, temperatures will take a tumble from Monday into Tuesday. And this time around, there could be some snow or wintry mix that sticks and makes for slippery spots.

While I doubt we will see an extended stretch of 70s+ again any time soon, there will be spurts of warmth mixed with generally cooler weather through mid to late March. Good ol' turbulent March — honestly, this kind of "up and down" weather is exactly what we expect this time of year.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.