NJ weather: Is it really going to rain on Halloween?
The Bottom Line
There is only one rain chance in the forecast. And unfortunately, it falls on Halloween Monday. Spotty showers are expected. But trick-or-treaters need not quake in fear or cry in terror, as things are trending happier and drier. Keep reading for more.
Meanwhile, the last weekend of October is shaping up to be quiet, seasonably cool, and mainly dry. Friday will be the coolest day of the week. But we will slowly warm up from now through the first day or two of November.
Yes, it will be the coolest day of the week. Probably a "jacket weather" kind of day. But we're only holding a few degrees below normal for late October.
I think skies will flip from sun to clouds to sun Friday. It is going to be dry all day. Temperatures will rise from the 40s in the morning (30s for NW NJ) to the upper 50s to around 60 degrees Friday afternoon.
Thursday was quite a breezy day. And as of this writing (6 a.m.), that chilly wind is still gusting over 20 mph near the coast. By mid-morning, I think it will lighten up considerably, making for a more comfortable day.
One more important note: With the on-shore breeze and coming off a New Moon, the tide is running extra high right now. A Coastal Flood Advisory is posted for Ocean, southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, and Cape May counties, calling for minor coastal flooding at high tide. That will be around 9 or 10 a.m. on the oceanfront, and closer to Noon to 1 p.m. along back bays.
Friday night will be clear and chilly. Frost will be limited to areas that have already frosted this season. Low temperatures will average 40 degrees by Saturday morning.
Overall, Saturday has the makings of a nice fall day.
Bright sunshine will prevail for most of the state. The only exception is South Jersey and along the Jersey Shore, where clouds may linger. (I'm calling it "partly to mostly cloudy" there.)
Again, dry and seasonable. High temperatures will end up right around the 60-degree mark.
Reminder: Saturday evening is the 10-year anniversary of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy's devastating landfall upon the Jersey Shore.
On Sunday, clouds will increase all around. But the wind direction will flip from northeasterly to southeasterly. Those two factors will basically cancel each other out. I'll put high temperatures in the lower 60s for Sunday.
Some models pop out a sprinkle Sunday morning. But I'm not worried — there's no major forcing involved, and our air mass is still very dry.
OK, let's get down to business. It's one of the most important forecasts of the year. (I'm being serious — think about how many parents and kids across New Jersey are outside for hours on Halloween, trick-or-treating, parading around in costumes, etc.)
So here's the thing. A weak disturbance will pass over New Jersey on Monday, raising a chance for rain showers. But the latest model guidance dials back on those rain chances — I would call it "spotty" showers, at best. Hit or miss stuff, and mainly on the light side.
There are two "howevers" to this forecast. 1.) The timing is hazy. The best chance for a shower probably coincides with prime trick-or-treating time in the afternoon and evening, but I'm not 100% sold on that idea. 2.) It's going to be fairly mild, with temperatures coming close to 70 degrees. Dew points will be on the rise too. There might be enough "juice" in the atmosphere to sustain an isolated downpour and/or thunderstorm, which would be a bit more impactful.
We'll continue to track the latest developments on Monday's forecast, and will give you updates all weekend long.
The Extended Forecast
Into November we go. And the month will start on a warm note, that's for sure.
Both Tuesday and Wednesday could bring widespread 70s to New Jersey. That is more than 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. (Although record highs in the 80s will be safe.)
Warmer-than-normal temperatures and pleasant will likely continue until our next big cold front, set to arrive somewhere around the first weekend of November.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.