Sun to rain: 7 things to know about NJ’s holiday weekend weather forecast
1.) The Bottom Line
As I'm sure you know, Wednesday is one of the busiest travel days of the year. And the weather will cooperate fully, with pleasant, dry, quiet weather lasting through all of Thanksgiving Day too.
However, two bullet points in this article involve inclement weather. A pair of storm systems will impact New Jersey over the holiday weekend. We're talking about rain though — there's not even a hint of wintry weather in the forecast, with high temperatures mainly in the 50s.
2.) Wednesday: The Nicest Day of the Week
For the fifth day in a row, I can use the "Sunny" icon on the 5 Day Forecast Nice!
It is another cool, crisp morning. Temperatures start the day in the 20s for inland NJ, with 30s near the coast.
Your Wednesday will be mostly sunny, dry, and seasonable. Mother Nature will not get in the way of travelers to/from New Jersey via car, air, rail, or sea. High temperatures will reach the seasonable mid 50s. It's nice to finally see some pleasant, typical late November weather.
Technically, Wednesday evening will feature a cold front passage. But no rain, no wind. Just a little knockback in temperatures for Thursday. Look for clear skies and quiet weather Wednesday evening. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 30s.
3.) Thanksgiving Thursday: The Second Nicest Day of the Week
Again, no complaints for Thanksgiving Day for travelers, parade festivities, and turkey eaters.
We will see abundant sunshine to start Thursday, but clouds will increase from late morning into the afternoon. Winds will stay light, allowing for those parade balloons to fly high and proud. High temperatures will scale back slightly, to the lower 50s. Still near-normal for this time of year, and still a nice November day.
4.) Black Friday: We Get Wet
Our next storm system is set to arrive on Friday. I'm not sure it will be enough to significantly hamper post-holiday travel (except by air). It won't be a washout. But we are looking at a period of damp n' dreary weather on Friday.
Forecast models still show a few options regarding the exact timing and intensity of rain. Some indicate a pocket of steady, heavy rain will develop during the day Friday — but I don't buy it, as this system lacks any real "oomph". Plus, those raindrops will be fighting through some pretty dry air.
So I'm calling it "showers" for Friday. Rain showers. Temperatures will hold steady, in the seasonable lower to mid 50s Friday afternoon.
5.) Saturday: Squeezing Out a Dry Day
Another good day for hitting the road and/or outdoor activities, with bright skies and quiet weather. High temps once again should shoot for the lower to mid 50s.
6.) Sunday: We Get Wet Again
The trickiest part of this forecast unfortunately coincides with the other big travel day of the holiday weekend — Sunday.
Another healthy wave of low pressure will cross directly over New Jersey, driving in rain. The wet weather may actually begin Saturday night, lasting through the first half of Sunday.
This second wave of rain will probably be steadier and heavier. Some rainfall totals may exceed an inch. I could see delays at area airports, in addition to slowdowns on the roads.
According to the latest forecast, rain chances will decrease through Sunday afternoon. There's even a good chance for some late-day clearing.
High temperatures will remain mild on Sunday too, with most of the state hitting upper 50s to around 60. Again, that's why any chance of snow will stay far north of New Jersey.
7.) The Extended Forecast: Dry End to November
If you are making it an "extended" long weekend, the weather will cooperate through early next week.
We will return to bright, dry, seasonable weather conditions for the big back-to-work and back-to-school Monday. Clouds roll in Tuesday, but our weather stays quiet for another day. Highs both days will end up somewhere in the 50s.
Long-range models suggest New Jersey's next rain chance won't come along until the middle of next week. I do not see any significant snow chance in our forecast any time soon, even as December begins.
Happy Thanksgiving, one and all! We'll have your latest forecast on-air and online, as always. Unless the forecast goes crazy this weekend, the CMDZ weather blog will return after the holiday weekend, on Monday.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.