Great weather continues, humidity and storms return to NJ this weekend
The Bottom Line
It's just so nice walking out the front door and not smacking right into a wall of humidity! We will enjoy two more days of wonderfully dry, warm, bright weather before changes take over.
You have to know that heat, humidity, and thunderstorms would return to the forecast eventually. And conditions are going to turn decidedly more summer-ish and unsettled for the second half of the weekend.
There is also a minor coastal flooding concern worth mentioning too.
Overall, Friday looks very similar to Thursday. Morning lows mainly in the lower 60s, with some 50s sprinkled in across the usual cool spots. Afternoon highs reaching the lower 80s for most of the state. Dew points stuck in the 50s, keeping the air dry and comfortable.
Skies should remain mostly sunny throughout Friday too. We are now on the northern edge of the band of western wildfire smoke riding through the upper atmosphere. So the sky may appear a big hazy or milky - especially in South Jersey, especially early in the day.
A couple of models have popped a shower into North Jersey around dinnertime Friday. But the chance is so slight, I've left it out of my written and on-air forecasts.
All around, a beautiful day. Perhaps a chance to turn off the air conditioner for a bit, if you haven't already. Enjoy!
Friday evening looks fantastic too. Clear, calm, and dry. Low temperatures will once again descend into the lower 60s for most of the Garden State.
Although it will be a great beach and pool day, there is a concern for localized minor coastal flooding. Not because of a storm, but because the full moon is driving an unusually high astronomical tide. Friday evening's and Saturday evening's high tide cycles could be up to a foot higher than usual in especially vulnerable areas. That seems to be especially true for back bays, the Delaware Bay shore, and along the Delaware River. (File this away as something worth mentioning and keeping in mind. But overall, no big deal here.)
One more beautiful day. Humidity levels will bump up slightly - my forecast puts the dew point rising as high as the lower 60s. That's high enough to add some stickiness to the air Saturday afternoon. It will still be a very nice day, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s.
Sunshine should dominate the sky for the majority of the day. However, starting mid to late afternoon, clouds will start to build in.
And then an approaching warm front could fire off some showers Saturday evening. I don't expect any raindrops before 8 p.m. And some guidance keeps us completely dry until 2 a.m. or later. Additionally, instability will be limited from this initial round of raindrops, so the threat for anything severe, flooding, or even thunderous seems low.
Definitely more unsettled and more summerlike. High temperatures push into the seasonable mid to upper 80s. (90+ isn't out of the question, although cloud cover may get in the way.) Dew points also push upward into the 70s, making it feel noticeably more humid.
Latest model guidance suggests two rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms will push through NJ on Sunday. One early, wrapping up by about 8 a.m. And one late, after about 4 p.m. That later round could bring some isolated strong storms, with pockets of heavy rain and lightning.
In between the raindrops, there will be several hours of dry weather, with mostly cloudy skies and a summer breeze.
Monday & Beyond
The chance for a few thunderstorms will continue Monday. The heat and humidity will continue too, as most of the state returns to 90 to start the final workweek of July.
Tuesday looks hot too, near 90. Most of the day looks fine, with hazy sunshine. But we may have to watch for a few late-day pop-up thunderstorms.
Temps should become more reasonable for Wednesday and Thursday, falling back into the 80s. It still looks pretty unsettled, with scattered showers possible each day.
If all goes well, we'll end July and begin August with another stretch of dry, pleasant weather. Potentially just in time for next weekend.
There are no developing tropical storms or other storm systems of concern at this time.
Enjoy the dryness and have a great weekend!
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.