More ice, snow, and rain: Update on NJ’s weekend winter storm

UPDATE... This article is outdated...

For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

The Bottom Line

Another day, another storm. Snowy, icy weekends in February are not unusual — but that does not mean we have to like them! Weather and road conditions will quickly go downhill again Saturday, with peak impacts through the evening hours.

Once again, I am far more concerned about the icing potential along the western edge of New Jersey than snowfall to the north. And ice is nasty business.

I have been talking about how this weekend's winter storm is very similar to Thursday morning's. Mainly due to the mixed bag of wintry precipitation we are expected to see, from snow to sleet to freezing rain to plain rain. But there are a few important differences here:

1.) This storm will be stronger and slightly colder than the last one, meaning more snow and more ice.

2.) The timing is completely different. Last time around, the "brunt" of the storm coincided with the morning commute, leading to a slew of traffic accidents in a short period of time. This storm will peak in the evening hours, when most New Jerseyans will be safe and sound and warm at home.

3.) It is a weekend. Fewer people on the roads, and generally more flexibility with personal schedules. We do not necessarily have to worry about traditional commutes, school delays and closings, etc.

The forecast has not changed much in the last 24 hours, which means I can get more specific and more confident about the finer details like snow accumulations, ice accumulations, rainfall, and timing.

So let's dive into the full rundown. I hope this article is an easy-to-skim outline of what to expect, so you can plan your weekend accordingly and stay safe.

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Storm Timeline

Saturday Morning... Nothing. It is a cloudy and cold start to the day, with temperatures only rising from the 20s into the mid 30s. Barely above freezing. I do not expect much, if anything, to fall from the sky before Noon on Saturday.

Saturday Afternoon... Spotty snow showers will clip the southern edge of New Jersey. It will be a very slow process for these bands of precipitation to become steadier and spread throughout the state. By late afternoon — 4 or 5 p.m. — everyone in New Jersey could have some light snow in the vicinity.

Saturday Evening... The brunt of the storm will be somewhere between 6 p.m. and Midnight Saturday. This is when you want to be off the roads if at all possible, as snowfall becomes steadier and heavier. It is also when warmer air will penetrate our lower and mid atmosphere, forcing a change from straight snow to an icy mix of sleet and freezing rain. For NJ's coastal counties, a transition to plain rain should happen quickly, limiting accumulations and slippery travel impacts.

Saturday Overnight... After Midnight, the ongoing snow, icy mix, and rain should dial back in intensity quite a bit. Road and weather conditions will still be wintry and/or wet through daybreak and beyond.

Sunday Morning... New Jersey's final snowflakes, ice pellets, and raindrops will fall between about 5 a.m. and 9 a.m. Skies should then clear quickly, with partial sunshine by late morning. That, along with high temperatures near 40 degrees, will kickstart some good melt (especially on treated surfaces).

Accumulations / Impacts

This is another one of those storms where changing precipitation types make it challenging to pinpoint exact totals and impacts. My usual advice applies: Stay vigilant and extra alert to changing weather conditions.

North of Interstate 78 (Blue)... Easily the snowiest spot in the state. In fact, the only part of New Jersey that is likely to stay as all snow through the brunt of the storm. Some mixing with sleet is possible late Saturday night. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 6 inches seems likely here, with the highest totals along the highest terrain close to the New York border. A light glaze of ice is possible here, but is not the biggest concern.

North-Central Jersey (Orange)... You might call this "the sleet zone". Snow will change to icy mix Saturday evening, so you get a full mixed bag of wintry conditions. After 1 to 3 inches of snow potentially accumulates, a healthy glaze of ice is possible too. Little to no rain is expected here.

Southwest Corridor (Purple)... Eventually, a transition from wintry to wet will take over down the Interstate 295 corridor. But the icing threat is significant, due to a period of sleet and especially freezing rain right through the brunt of the storm. My forecast calls up upwards of a quarter-inch of ice accretion — but some models admittedly go even higher along the western edge of the state. Up to an inch of snow is possible on the front-end of the storm.

Coastal Counties (Green)... Although you might see some snow at the very beginning and end of the storm, this looks like a mainly rain event. We should transition to rain before the heaviest, steadiest precipitation bands arrive Saturday night. I put a precautionary coating of wet snow and light glaze of ice in the forecast, but don't expect much wintry impact along the Jersey Shore.

Advisories

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for western Bergen and western Passaic counties only, from 5 p.m. Saturday to 11 a.m. Sunday. The warning calls for serious travel disruptions due to 5 to 7 inches of snow and a light glaze of ice.

The rest of inland New Jersey falls under a less-urgent, less-severe Winter Weather Advisory. Here's a rundown of the advisory timing and forecast impacts according to the National Weather Service:

—Noon Saturday to 2 a.m. Sunday... inland Atlantic, southeastern Burlington, inland Monmouth, and inland Ocean counties... Up to 2 inches of snow, up to one-tenth of an inch of ice.

—Noon Saturday to 6 a.m. Sunday... northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem counties... Up to 2" of snow, up to two-tenths of an inch of ice.

—3 p.m. Saturday to 6 a.m. Sunday... Morris, Sussex, and Warren counties... 2 to 5 inches of snow, up to one-tenth of an inch of ice.

—3 p.m. Saturday to 6 a.m. Sunday... Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, and Somerset counties... 1 to 3 inches of snow, up to one-tenth of an inch of ice.

—5 p.m. Saturday to 11 a.m. Sunday... eastern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, eastern Passaic, and Union counties... 3 to 5 inches of snow and a light glaze of ice.

The Next One

The next storm system to impact New Jersey is just three days — 72 hours — away.

Usually, I strongly prefer to handle one storm at a time. And that is true here, but I can start to lay out some basic bullet points.

—With the core of the system passing south of New Jersey, we will be on the cold side of the storm. That lends toward an all-snow situation for all but the immediate coast. No nasty ice or mixing this time around.

—Current model guidance puts the heaviest snow band south of New Jersey. In this "South Jersey Special" scenario, southern NJ would see 3+ inches of snow, while North Jersey gets completely shafted.

—There is a "worst-case scenario" here, with a narrow stripe of heavy snow developing right over New Jersey. Potential accumulations would be on the order of 6 to 12 inches.

—I do not think a "complete miss" option is on the table.

—Timing is a problem. Right now, it looks like a midday Tuesday start, evening brunt (including a piece of the PM commute), and early Wednesday end (with impacts lingering into the AM commute).

—If this storm system takes a full-on coastal storm (nor'easter) trajectory, there could be some wind and coastal flooding concerns too.

Obviously, these scenarios represent very different levels of impact and concern — uncertainty is high. I plan to give Tuesday's storm the full "CMDZ Weather Blog" write-up treatment on Sunday. I'm not sure if I will publish a deterministic snowfall forecast, or just further refine the possible scenarios. We'll see what forecast models look like.

In the meantime, I hope you have a wonderful weekend of wintry and wet weather. Please be smart and stay safe out there.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.