Finally, a nice weather forecast for NJ: Partial sunshine, warming up

The Bottom Line

Pleasant weather returns, with a warming trend, generally bright skies, and mainly dry weather through the rest of the workweek. New Jersey is technically still on the backside of this weekend’s coastal storm system, centered over Maine, so some clouds and maybe even a sprinkle are possible Tuesday. I think it is still fair to call it nice overall, with partial sunshine and high temperatures around 70 degrees. Wednesday gets even warmer, in the 70s, to close out September. And October will begin on a warm, almost summerlike note with 80s for Thursday and Friday. There are two rain chances to watch on the horizon. The first is a chance for showers Friday evening, from a cold front that will knock back temperatures for the weekend. The bigger rain chance will be late Saturday night into Sunday — it might be time to mentally prepare yourself for part of the weekend getting washed out yet again.

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Weather Hazards

There is still a Coastal Flood Advisory posted for the back bays and tidal waterways of Ocean County. Always the last to drain, another round of minor category flooding is possible during the Tuesday morning and midday high tide cycle. Everywhere else has fallen below flood stage at this point and will stay there. The surf has calmed down considerably too.

The next thing to watch will be the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms on Sunday. It is too soon for specific details, although early indications suggest another soaking rain could raise concerns for ponding and flooding. That will be worth watching closely as the weekend approaches.

Climatological Context

September 29 is the 272nd day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 72 to 74 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 53 to 56 degrees.

September is, on average, New Jersey’s fourth warmest and sixth driest month of the year.

Tuesday

A quiet start to a quiet weather day. Sounds like a nice change of pace to me.

After roughly a week of clouds, wind, rain, coastal flooding, and general weather misery, I finally get to present a nice, easy forecast.

Temperatures Tuesday morning are averaging around 60 degrees across the state. Not too shabby for late September. The air is not exactly crisp and dry — dew points are hovering close to 60 degrees — but there is not enough humidity around for it to feel sticky either.

New Jersey is technically still sitting on the backside of the weekend nor’easter, even though the center of that storm is now hundreds of miles away, over Maine. So clouds will still hang overhead at times Tuesday, especially early on. I also cannot completely rule out a stray sprinkle streaming through.

Still, Tuesday qualifies as pleasant overall. Partial sunshine emerges, winds will be light, and highs will end up around 70 degrees.

That is very close to normal for the closing days of September. And it marks the beginning of a big warming trend.

Another round of localized minor coastal flooding is possible during the morning/midday high tide cycle.

Tuesday night looks like a Goldilocks night: Not too cold, not too warm, just right. Expect comfortably cool lows in the upper 50s, under mainly clear skies.

Wednesday

The last day of September should be very nice, a few degrees warmer than Tuesday.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds, dry weather, and high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.

Thursday

October begins and the warmup continues.

Thursday will definitely be warm, with highs near 80 degrees. That is well above normal for the start of October and even summerlike.

However, skies may be mostly cloudy at times. A couple forecast models paint an isolated shower over New Jersey at some point too.

But that is a very limited rain chance. Most of New Jersey should stay dry, so don't necessarily change your outdoor plans.

Friday & Beyond

Friday looks like the warmest day of the week.

Expect plenty of sunshine for much of the day, with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s. That is remarkably warm for early October, possibly flirting with record highs, and 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

A cold front will approach later Friday, introducing the chance for a few showers into Friday evening. That front will also knock temperatures down for the weekend.

Then attention turns toward New Jersey’s next substantial storm system.

Most of Saturday looks fine. Then the current storm timeline has rain moving in late Saturday night. Sunday looks wet from start to finish, putting your outdoor activities in jeopardy once again. Steady to heavy rain and thunderstorms are both possibilities.

It is far too early to nail down rainfall totals or exact timing this far out. But I will sayan inch or two of rain is on the table, which would once again raise concerns for ponding and flooding — especially after such a wet September.

And yes, that means New Jersey may be staring down another partially washed-out weekend.

Until then, enjoy the payoff of this week's lovely stretch of mainly dry, nice weather. While it lasts.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.