NJ’s dangerous heat wave peaks over the next three days

The Bottom Line

We are in the thick of it now — Thursday and Friday will be the worst days of this heat wave, with temperatures hitting 100 degrees and the heat index over 110. An Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect for almost the entire state of New Jersey. The only exception is coastal Ocean, coastal Atlantic, and coastal Cape May counties, which go under a less severe Heat Advisory starting at noon Thursday. That is because you will find some relief from the heat along the coast, thanks to the sea breeze effect. Regardless, make sure you are taking care of yourself — staying extra hydrated, dressing appropriately for the extreme weather, and taking frequent breaks. It is going to be excessively sunny on Thursday and Friday too, adding to the heat concerns. The near-record heat will continue for the Fourth of July on Saturday, although with some clouds in play. And there could be a few late-day thunderstorms further interrupting outdoor activities and fireworks. The heat starts to relent on Sunday. And then a big cooldown and big wetdown takes over for early next week, as heavy rain and thick clouds potentially keep highs in the 70s for Monday and beyond.

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Weather Hazards

An Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect for almost all of New Jersey until Saturday evening. A less severe Heat Advisory begins at noon Thursday for coastal Ocean, coastal Atlantic, and coastal Cape May counties. I think the name says it all — "extreme heat" is our big concern here, with Thursday and Friday the peak of New Jersey's heat wave. Inland temperatures will reach 100+ degrees. The heat index values will push to 110+.

This goes far beyond normal, everyday heat for New Jersey. Even simple outdoor tasks like walking the dog, taking out the trash, or getting the mail can take a toll in this kind of heat and humidity. Air conditioning is your friend.

Thunderstorms are not the main story, but they are worth watching. A pop-up storm is possible Friday evening, and a few late-day thunderstorms could become a nuisance on the Fourth of July. Any storm could briefly interrupt outdoor plans, including fireworks.

Climatological Context

July 2 is the 183rd day of 2026. We are now officially more than halfway through the year.

Normal high temperatures range from 85 to 86 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 65 to 68 degrees.

July is, on average, New Jersey’s hottest and wettest month of the year.

Thursday

You are walking out the front door into a wall of intense heat and humidity Thursday morning. Temperatures around the Garden State are in the 70s and 80s Normal high temperatures are in the 80s here in early July. Yuck.

Thursday will be about as bad as it gets in the summertime here in New Jersey. Expect dangerous heat and humidity, nothing but hazy sunshine overhead, and inland high temperatures reaching near 100 degrees. The heat index may climb over 110.

Keep in mind, we take air temperature readings in the shade. It is considerably hotter in direct sunlight. And humidity makes the air even more stifling.

The Shore is the one glimmer of good news. Ocean and barrier island communities will be cooler, generally in the 80s to 90s, thanks to the sea breeze. Still humid, still hot, especially on mainland beaches, but at least not 100 degrees. The Jersey Shore rip current risk comes down to moderate for Thursday.

Thursday night stays warm and muggy under clear skies. It will not be cool or comfortable at all, with low temperatures only falling into the 70s.

Friday

Record heat roars again on Friday, with highs around 100 to 105 degrees. It will be mostly sunny and breezy.

There is a chance of a pop-up thunderstorm Friday evening, but do not count on rain for relief. Most of New Jersey will stay dry, sunny, and brutally hot.

Saturday (4th of July)

The history books tell us that the summer of 1776 was notoriously scorching hot in Philadelphia, as our founding fathers drafted the Declaration of Independence. (In fact, there's a whole song about it in the musical 1776 — "someone ought to open up a window!") So maybe it's appropriate that we are sweating and sweltering as we approach the 250th birthday of America. Hey ... at least we have air conditioning.
The Fourth of July will still be hot and humid. Sun and clouds are expected through the day. The added cloud cover may help a little, but not enough to make outdoor plans feel comfortable. Parades, barbecues, beach trips, and fireworks will all require extra attention to hydration, shade, and breaks.

High temperatures will reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Even though the absolute worst of the heat may be behind us, Saturday will still be a scorcher.

A few late-day thunderstorms are possible Saturday too. Nothing organized or prolonged is expected at this point. But a few spotty storms could interrupt outdoor activities or delay fireworks. Heat is obviously the big story heading into the holiday weekend, but let's not ignore that storm possibility.

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday should be the last day of the heat wave. But New Jersey will fall out of the "danger zone" as the holiday weekend comes to an end.

Expect mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the lower 90s. Humidity will dial back slightly, thanks to a backdoor cold front.

That is still hot, of course. But compared to Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, it will feel more reasonable and more seasonable.

The bigger change arrives early next week, as a big cooldown and big wetdown takes over. Heavy rain, thick clouds, and a much cooler air mass may keep high temperatures in the 70s for Monday and beyond. Some model guidance is painting several inches of much-needed rainfall through the first half of next week — a very different scene than this week's intense heat and humidity.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.