NJ weather: Quiet, dry weather for another three and a half days

The Bottom Line

Last week was nuts. Two significant winter storms, within a few days of each other. Each one produced a few snowfall reports over a foot.

Now, we find ourselves in a nice, tranquil slice of the atmosphere. And that's fine by me.

Quiet, dry weather with bright skies will be the name of the game for the first half of this week. We do have a little warmup on the way, eventually. And then our next storm system, arriving Thursday night into Friday, will be primarily a rainmaker for New Jersey.

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Monday

Happy President's Day! Monday morning is pretty much "status quo" for mid-February, with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. I see a few clouds creeping into North Jersey, but that's it. It should be sunny and dry, from start to finish.

Plus, winds will be considerably lighter than on Sunday. Blowing out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Look for high temperatures around the lower 40s Monday afternoon. That is just a couple degrees below normal for this time of year.

With clear skies, light winds, dry air, and snow cover for most of the state, Monday night will be quite cold. Low temperatures will average lower 20s statewide. I suspect we will see a bunch of teens on the temperature map Tuesday morning. Bundle up!

Tuesday

Temperatures take a tiny step backward on Tuesday, with highs around the 40 degree mark. But again, it will be a bright and sunny February day, with nary a raindrop or snowflake to be found.

Wednesday

Another pleasant, quiet weather day. Skies will turn partly sunny, with some fair weather clouds in play. High temperatures will push into the seasonable mid 40s.

Worth noting: A strong coastal storm will be developing over the Atlantic Ocean between now and midweek. It will stay several hundred miles away from New Jersey, so there are zero weather concerns here. But I have to wonder if the Jersey Shore will experience rough surf and tidal flooding concerns around Wednesday or Thursday. That system will be swept out to sea by the weekend, any such coastal impacts will be short-lived.

Thursday

Thursday has potential. How "nice" the day is depends on how thick the cloud cover gets, and how strong the on-shore breeze becomes. (Keep in mind, ocean temperatures right now are between 37 and 43 degrees, so any daytime sea breeze will be a chilly one.)

Skies will become mostly cloudy on Thursday. My latest forecast puts high temperatures again in the mid 40s on Thursday. Realistically, we could flirt with 50 degrees in inland South Jersey, given enough glimmers of sunshine.

Most of Thursday will be dry. But showers will come into play late-day. GFS model says late afternoon. Euro says late evening. The truth is probably in the middle.

This next storm system will be primarily a rainmaker for New Jersey. I could see a limited period of snow Thursday night in North Jersey, mainly along and north of Interstate 80. It may produce a coating of accumulation, but wintry impacts will be limited.

Friday

Wet weather will continue Friday. That may include a period of steady rain Friday morning, before showers exit in the afternoon.

This storm system will carry in slightly warmer air, so highs will probably reach the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. It is difficult to call that "warm" - but at least that warmup prevents this one from being another "winter" storm.

The Extended Forecast

In the wake of Friday's rainmaker storm system, temperatures will probably fall back again for the last weekend of February.

Both Saturday and Sunday look a little bit unsettled, with spotty showers possible. Those would be snow showers, although it does not look like any corner of New Jersey will see any substantial accumulations

I am not sure long-range models have any good handle on what happens beyond the next seven days, so I am not going to talk about next week's forecast yet. Will March come in like a lion or a lamb? We shall see.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.