Big changes ahead for NJ’s weather: From warm to wet to windy to cool

We have reached the grand finale of our latest warm stretch. In fact, this will be the last truly warm day New Jersey sees in quite a while. Back to 80 degrees Tuesday, with increasing clouds and dry weather through sunset. Then rain moves in Tuesday evening through about midday Wednesday. Nothing heavy or severe here, just wet. Beyond the rain Wednesday afternoon, it will turn sunny, breezy and cooler. By Thursday and Friday, we'll see morning lows in the 40s and afternoon highs in the 60s. Definitely feeling like fall.

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Warm

As I sit here munching on a pumpkin spice donut, I have to think how much better it would taste if it weren't going to be 80 degrees outside. Well, worry not fall-lovers, your time is coming soon enough. Tuesday will be the last day of this stretch of unseasonably, near-record-breaking warmth.

Tuesday morning is starting in the lower 60s — a bit warmer than earlier this week, due to a slight uptick in humidity in the air. We will see a few clouds along with sunshine through the morning. And then cloud cover will progressively thicken up Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will make a run for 80 degrees. Still about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Wet

New Jersey's weather should stay dry through at least sunset Tuesday evening. (Although I can't rule out a stray shower in NW NJ starting around 4 or 5 p.m.)

Scattered rain will creep in from the west starting late Tuesday evening, with wet weather enveloping the entire state through early Wednesday morning. The AM commute will be wet, with pockets of steady to heavy rain possible.

Rain should exit the coast around the Wednesday late morning to midday hours. And then the sun will come out.

Total rainfall will likely end up around a half-inch for most, give or take. Upwards of an inch is possible if it really pours in spots.

There really is no need to ring alarm bells for anything dangerous, excessive, or severe here — it's just looking inclement and wet for a period of 12 to 18 hours.

Windy

The rain will ultimately be swept out by a cold front, the leading edge of a much cooler, drier air mass. That new air will "whoosh" into New Jersey on a brisk northerly wind Wednesday afternoon.

I expect wind gusts to top out around 20 to 30 mph on Wednesday. That is not strong enough to be damaging, but will certainly be noticeable. And will be enough to add a "blustery" characteristic to the day.

Cool

High temperatures on Wednesday should reach about 70 degrees. Not too shabby. There is a decent chance that thermometers start to slide downward Wednesday afternoon as that chilly air takes hold.

By Thursday, it is really going to feel like October around here. Expect morning lows in the 40s. (Possibly some frosty 30s among the northwest hills.) Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the lower 60s. That is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Friday will also stay cooler than average, with highs in the mid 60s. At least both Thursday and Friday will be bright and sunny, with calming winds and dry weather.

Weekend

There is still concern that a coastal storm develops this weekend and delivers a round of heavy rain and strong wind to New Jersey. But it is still far from a sure bet, with model guidance even more divergent in their solutions as of the latest runs.

The GFS model now favors a later solution, keeping Saturday completely dry while making Sunday a soaker and Monday showery. Wind would also be a concern with such a close fly-by of a powerful storm system, potentially gusting above 40 mph.

The European model has high pressure winning out over the northeastern United States, suppressing the development of that coastal low and keeping it well to our south. In such a scenario, New Jersey would not even see a drop of rain or gust of wind.

So we are still in a holding pattern for now. Saturday is now in my 5 Day Forecast — I have opted for a mostly cloudy but dry and calm call for now. Let's see how things continue to resolve over the next 24 to 36 hours, and then we will make a more confident call. Autumn weekends are busy and precious for many New Jersey families, so I want to make sure I'm giving the xbest and most accurate information I can. No hype and hysteria here, unless it's warranted!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.