The Bottom Line

Sunday's high temperatures only reached the mid to upper 40s across New Jersey, easily our coldest day of the season so far. Monday's forecast highs: also in the mid to upper 40s. With a brisk wind adding to the chill in the air.

Tuesday will be unseasonably cold too, before temperatures moderate midweek. The warmup will be welcome, but brief. Our next storm system late-week will drive a round of rain through New Jersey. Followed by another bout of tumbling temperatures, of course.

At least there are no substantial periods of severe weather or winter weather in the forecast for the next week (at least).

Monday

I define the term blustery as the uncomfortable combination of cold and wind. And I think there will be a definite blustery characteristic to Monday, as below-normal temperatures accompany a brisk westerly wind.

We're starting out with fog and frost, with temperatures mainly in the 30s. (40s in coastal communities.) As of this writing (6 a.m.), there is a bank of rain showers shoving through the middle of the state. Yes, just rain — there have been some snowflakes farther north, but no accumulations or travel risk.

The bulk of the shower activity will wrap up by about 10 a.m. (Although flurries will be possible in North Jersey through the afternoon.) Early clouds will give way to sunshine by Monday afternoon. But temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 40s, similar to Sunday. We're running 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the midpoint of November.

In addition, you'll have to contend with an occasionally gusty wind Monday. Blowing out of the west, peaking between 20 and 30 mph. Temperatures aren't quite cold enough for the "wind chill" to be valid, but the wind will definitely keep that chilly air moving around. (I won't tell you to "bundle up" — let's save that for the really frigid days and months ahead!)

Monday night will get pretty cold too. A frost or freeze is practically a guarantee away from the coast, with low temps in the lower-mid 30s. Skies will stay mainly clear, and winds will calm.

Tuesday

The last cold day this time around. Highs will once again be held to the mid to upper 40s. The good news? Mostly sunny skies. The not-so-good news? Breezy at times. At least it will be a dry, quiet day.

Wednesday

The (brief) warmup begins! Temperatures will moderate to near-normal levels for mid-November, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. It looks like we'll see mixed sunshine and clouds throughout the day, but rain chances are near-zero. So a relatively nice day.

Thursday

Easily the nicest and warmest day of the week. HIgh temperatures jump into the mid to upper 60s, with increasing clouds. The daytime hours will stay dry and trouble-free.

Our next storm system will be a cold front, currently modeled to arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. A quick batch of steady rain is expected, totalling about a quarter-inch of total rainfall. There could be some snowflakes mixed in, but only for far NW NJ.

Friday & Beyond

Rain/snow showers may linger into Friday morning, and then we'll tap into yet another cold air mass. High temperatures will once again descend to the 40s for Friday and Saturday. Long-range guidance shows a slight warmup along with some rain showers on Sunday.

I sense below-normal temperatures, yet minimal snow chances, will be the case through the second half of November.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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