The Bottom Line
June is, on average, New Jersey's 3rd hottest and 3rd wettest month of the year. That reputation has been well-earned this time around, with month-to-date rainfall way above normal. Of course, we're also getting into "humidity season," as summer officially begins in just four days.
So when Mother Nature offers a breather, a streak of beautiful weather, we have reason to celebrate! Both Wednesday and Thursday will be beautiful Spring days - no hesitations, no complaints.
Clouds and humidity will build back late-week. And we do have to talk about some steamy and stormy weather heading into the Father's Day Weekend.
Mostly sunny skies. Dry weather. Low humidity (and getting lower). A light northwest breeze. And seasonably warm temperatures. Just beautiful. Hopefully you can spend some time outdoors Wednesday. Or at least open up the windows.
Our high temperature will reach about 80 degrees. The Jersey Shore will probably end up a couple degrees cooler. However, the sea breeze cooling effect should be mitigated by the ambient northwest (land) breeze.
Wednesday night will be clear, calm, and quite cool. Low temperatures will average mid 50s across the state. That alone is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid-June. (Bone-dry air is the reason for the chill.) The coolest corners of the state - NW NJ and the Pine Barrens - could briefly dip into the 40s. That is pretty close to our record low temperatures this time of year. And pretty close to "jacket weather" too.
Another winner. More sunshine. A more prominent sea breeze too. For most of New Jersey, high temperatures will come down a degree or two, to the upper 70s. Along the Shore, we might get stuck in the lower 70s or so.
Although clouds and humidity will increase Friday, it won't be a bad weather day. High temps will bump into the lower 80s.
I also have to add the chance of a late-day shower Friday. The NAM in particular shows a shortwave pushing in from the west Friday afternoon. But most model guidance paints a dry day. Just a possibility to keep in mind for now.
We dive into the weekend with a (brief) return to steamy, (somewhat) stormy weather. Temperatures will soar close to 90 degrees on Saturday, as dew points surge into the 60s. With mixed sun and clouds overhead, it will be a summerlike start to the last weekend of Spring.
There are also two opportunities for raindrops on Saturday. The early morning warm front could drive in some showers or light thunderstorms. A late-day cold front may lead to some thunderstorms. Current forecast timing puts storms from mid-afternoon onward.
Probably the friendlier day of the weekend, thanks to lower humidity, drier weather, and partly sunny skies. Highs scale back to the mid 80s or so.
Not only is this Sunday Father's Day, it is also the Summer Solstice. The new season begins at 11:32 p.m. Sunday night.
The Extended Forecast
The forecast for early next week is actually reliant on the tropics. A developing storm system in the Bay of Campeche (off the coast of Mexico) will move north into the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. It may or may not develop into a tropical storm. (The next name on the list is Claudette, by the way.)
Some forecast models put that storm system in our neighborhood around Monday-Tuesday of next week. That could lead to another influx of humidity, a period of heavy rain, and/or perhaps some coastal concerns. More questions than answers at this point - we will have a clearer outlook by the end of the week.