Thursday NJ weather: One chilly day, watching weekend rain chance

The Bottom Line

We’ve been describing this week’s weather as a roller coaster ride. Following that analogy, we’re at the bottom of the first drop, ready for a nice recovery. (And hopefully some killer air time!)

One chilly day will be followed by more seasonable and pleasant days. Our next storm system will be an area of low pressure tracking directly over New Jersey this weekend, leading to a period of soaking rain. The extended forecast shows a sustained warmup next week, with thermometers potentially coming close to 80 degrees once again.

Thursday

It’s cold! If it were mid-March, these temperatures would be totally typical. But here we are in late April, reaching into the winter wardrobe again.

We’re starting the day with frosty 30s across New Jersey. To the northwest, we even have temperatures just below the freezing mark. A brisk northwesterly wind, occasionally gusting to 30 mph, puts the wind chill in many spots in the 20s.

Highs Thursday afternoon will only reach about 50 degrees. That’s it - about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. The morning looks bright and sunny, before clouds build in later.

Another cold night is expected Thursday night. In fact, as skies become mainly clear and the wind calms down, temps could end up a degree or two colder than last night. Look for lows in the lower to mid 30s - a frost or even a freeze is possible, away from the immediate coast.

Friday

Much better. Despite the chilly start, we will see high temperatures warm into the seasonable lower 60s. Our forecast calls for mostly sunny skies, breezy conditions, and completely dry weather. Overall, a pretty nice late April day.

Saturday

The daytime hours look great. Highs pop into the mid 60s, as sun turns to clouds.

An area of low pressure - a storm system - is expected to pass directly over New Jersey from Saturday night through Sunday morning. First raindrops are expected between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. Saturday night. Then we face a 12 to 18 hour period of steady to heavy rain, primarily during those overnight hours.

Forecast models have been very consistent about the timing of this wet weather. (Not so much when it comes to rainfall totals, but I’m still thinking we’ll come close to an inch.)

Sunday

Peak rainfall will come in Sunday’s early morning hours. And then things will taper off by lunchtime Sunday.

As long as the rain moves out on schedule, we should salvage Sunday afternoon. As sun breaks out, I expect temperatures to rise quickly into the mid 60s.

The Extended Forecast

The final week of April will feature a big warmup, along with mainly dry weather. Long-range models don’t depict our next chance of showers developing until next Friday.

60s on Monday. Some 70s on Tuesday. And coming close to 80 degrees (away from the Jersey Shore) by Wednesday. Some nice warm thoughts to get us through today’s burst of chilly, blustery weather!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.