UPDATE... This article is outdated...

For the latest winter storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.


UPDATE as of 2:30 p.m. Sunday...

Given the latest model trend and the earlier-than-expected arrival time of first snowflakes, I decided to make one little tweak to my snow forecast this afternoon. Can you spot it?

Update on Sunday-Monday-Tuesday winter storm, as of Sunday afternoon. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)

Ah, the dreaded "plus". I can't deny that all signs are pointing to some truly impressive snowfall across northern New Jersey. Raw model output as high as 2 feet of snow. Hope you're ready to get buried!

There is one new development that both the GFS and Euro models hint at. The track of the coastal low is tracking very close to Monmouth County, New Jersey Monday night. That means: 1.) we'll probably hold onto heavier precipitation bands longer, through Midnight-ish. 2.) There could be one more eleventh hour flip to mix or rain along the eastern edge of the state late Monday night through Tuesday morning.

I'm not changing my snow contours as a result of that wiggle. But it's a possibility we'll need to keep in mind when we're ready to transition from Phase 3 to 4 of the storm.


ORIGINAL POST from 9:27 a.m. Sunday...

The Bottom Line

There is no denying now that this is going to be a significant winter storm. All model guidance and all analysis is now firmly pointing to one solution — a powerful nor'easter driving big snow through approximately the northern half of New Jersey. The only question is how far into double-digits those snow totals will grow.

South Jersey, you don't get off scot-free here, with some accumulating snow, accompanied by sloppy icy mix.

On top of an extended 48-hour period of wintry precipitation, please do not ignore or dismiss the fierce 40-50 mph wind gusts. Power outages and near-blizzard low visibility conditions are likely. Moderate coastal flooding is also expected through several high tide cycles in a row.

Unless something changes dramatically as the storm begins, this will be my "final call" snow forecast. (We will, of course, continuously nowcast the storm both on-air and online, until the final flakes fly.) I spent way too much time putting together the following county-by-county breakdown of how the storm is expected to play out. Hopefully this information helps you stay safe, warm, and happy for the duration of this nasty nor'easter.

Atlantic County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in Sunday afternoon, with an inch or two of accumulation possible by Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... After Midnight, snow will change to wintry mix and then likely all rain. The wet weather will likely continue through most of Monday, especially along the immediate coast.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... Mainly rain/sleet along the coast. Mainly sleet/snow west of the Parkway. Precipitation will become heavier, with generally sloppy weather throughout the day. Whether icy or wet, roads will become slippery. Fierce wind gusts could cause power outages, cause driving/walking difficulties, and just generally make for an unpleasant and blustery day. Coastal flooding will also become a big concern during both high tide cycles on Monday.
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Northerly winds on the back side of the nor'easter may cause a flip back to all snow for everyone, even the immediate coast. Additional light accumulations are possible. As the storm system shoves out to sea, precipitation will taper off from west to east around Tuesday midday. The wind will lighten up too, although the tidal flooding picture will remain precarious during both of Tuesday's high tide cycles.
—Total Snowfall... 1" (Coast) to 4" (Inland)
—Wind Gusts... 50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 2 to 3 feet of storm surge will cause several rounds of moderate flooding at high tide on Monday and Tuesday. Tide levels may approach major flood stage. Back bays will be particularly vulnerable to water inundation issues, as they'll have little opportunity to fully drain between crests.
—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday
—Coastal Flood Warning... from 7 a.m. Monday to 5 p.m. Tuesday

Bergen County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday night. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Somewhat heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through Tuesday afternoon. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... N/A
—Winter Storm Warning... 7 p.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Tuesday

Burlington County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in Sunday afternoon, with an inch or two of accumulation possible by Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... After sunset Sunday evening, snow will transition to a wintry mix of sleet and rain. A period of all rain is possible for a time through early Monday morning. If rain hits subfreezing ground, light icing will be possible. Any changeover to wet weather will only last through about mid-morning Monday, before flipping back to wintry snow/sleet again.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Any areas of sleet and/or rain will switch back to snow. Snowfall could be heavy at times. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, severely reducing visibility at times. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse.
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off Tuesday morning. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 3" (Southeast) to 10" (Northwest)
—Wind Gusts... 40-50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 1 to 2 feet of water rise along the Delaware River may cause minor flooding on Monday and Tuesday.
—Winter Storm Warning... 1 p.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday
—Coastal Flood Warning... from 7 a.m. Monday to 5 p.m. Tuesday

Camden County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in Sunday afternoon, with an inch or two of accumulation possible by Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... After sunset Sunday evening, snow will transition to a wintry mix of sleet and rain. A period of all rain is possible for a time through early Monday morning. If rain hits subfreezing ground, light icing will be possible. Any changeover to wet weather will only last through about mid-morning Monday, before flipping back to wintry snow/sleet again.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Any areas of sleet and/or rain will switch back to snow. Snowfall could be heavy at times. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, severely reducing visibility at times. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse.
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off Tuesday morning. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 5" to 9"
—Wind Gusts... 40-50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 1 to 2 feet of water rise along the Delaware River may cause minor flooding on Monday and Tuesday.
—Winter Storm Warning... 1 p.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday

Cape May County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in Sunday afternoon, with an inch or two of accumulation possible by Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... After Midnight, snow will change to wintry mix and then likely all rain. The wet weather will likely continue through most of Monday, especially along the immediate coast.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... Mainly rain/sleet along the coast. Mainly sleet/snow west of the Parkway. Precipitation will become heavier, with generally sloppy weather throughout the day. Whether icy or wet, roads will become slippery. Fierce wind gusts could cause power outages, cause driving/walking difficulties, and just generally make for an unpleasant and blustery day. Coastal flooding will also become a big concern during both high tide cycles on Monday.
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Northerly winds on the back side of the nor'easter may cause a flip back to all snow for everyone, even the immediate coast. Additional light accumulations are possible. As the storm system shoves out to sea, precipitation will taper off from west to east around Tuesday midday. The wind will lighten up too, although the tidal flooding picture will remain precarious during both of Tuesday's high tide cycles.
—Total Snowfall... 1" (Oceanfront) to 3" (Northwest)
—Wind Gusts... 50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
Coastal Flooding... 2 to 3 feet of storm surge will cause several rounds of moderate flooding at high tide on Monday and Tuesday. Tide levels may approach major flood stage. Back bays will be particularly vulnerable to water inundation issues, as they'll have little opportunity to fully drain between crests.
—Winter Weather Advisory... For inland areas only, from 10 a.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday
—Wind Advisory... from 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday.
—Coastal Flood Warning... from 7 a.m. Monday to 5 p.m. Tuesday

Cumberland County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in Sunday afternoon, with an inch or two of accumulation possible by Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... After sunset Sunday evening, snow will transition to a wintry mix of sleet and rain. A period of all rain is possible for a time through early Monday morning. If rain hits subfreezing ground, light icing will be possible. Any changeover to wet weather will only last through about late morning Monday, before flipping back to wintry snow/sleet again.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... Mainly rain/sleet to the southeast. Mainly sleet/snow to the northwest. Moderate to heavy precipitation will continue, with generally sloppy weather throughout the day. Whether icy or wet, roads will become slippery. Fierce wind gusts could cause power outages, cause driving/walking difficulties, and just generally make for an unpleasant and blustery day. Coastal flooding will also become a concern during both high tide cycles on Monday.
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Storm intensity will generally decrease after Midnight, through Tuesday morning. Light to moderate snow may continue, with additional light accumulations possible. The wind will lighten up too, although the tidal flooding picture will remain precarious during both of Tuesday's high tide cycles.
—Total Snowfall... 2" to 5"
—Wind Gusts... 40-50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 1 to 2 feet of storm along the Delaware Bay and Delaware River may cause several rounds of minor flooding on Monday and Tuesday.
—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday
—Coastal Flood Watch... 8 p.m. Monday to 5 p.m. Tuesday

Essex County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday night. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Somewhat heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through Tuesday afternoon. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 1 to 2 feet of storm surge will cause several rounds of minor flooding along tidal waterways through Monday and early Tuesday.
—Winter Storm Warning... 7 p.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Tuesday
—Coastal Flood Advisory... 9 a.m. to Noon Monday, AND 8 p.m. Monday to 1 a.m. Tuesday

Gloucester County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in Sunday afternoon, with an inch or two of accumulation possible by Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... After sunset Sunday evening, snow will transition to a wintry mix of sleet and rain. A period of all rain is possible for a time through early Monday morning. If rain hits subfreezing ground, light icing will be possible. Any changeover to wet weather will only last through about late morning Monday, before flipping back to wintry snow/sleet again.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... Any areas of sleet and/or rain will eventually switch back to snow. Moderate to heavy snowfall is likely for most of Monday. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, severely reducing visibility at times.
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off Tuesday morning. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 4" to 8"
—Wind Gusts... 40-50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 1 to 2 feet of water rise along the Delaware River may cause minor flooding on Monday and Tuesday.
—Winter Storm Warning... 1 p.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday

Hudson County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday night. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Somewhat heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through Tuesday afternoon. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 1 to 2 feet of storm surge will cause several rounds of minor flooding along tidal waterways through Monday and early Tuesday.
—Winter Storm Warning... 7 p.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Tuesday
—Coastal Flood Advisory... 9 a.m. to Noon Monday, AND 8 p.m. Monday to 1 a.m. Tuesday

Hunterdon County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday evening. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing. Some sleet may mix with snow early Monday morning.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off Tuesday morning through midday. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 40 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... N/A
—Winter Storm Warning... 5 p.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Tuesday

Mercer County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in around dinnertime Sunday, with an inch or two of accumulation possible through Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing. Some sleet may mix with snow early Monday morning.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off Tuesday morning through midday. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 40 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 1 to 2 feet of water rise along the Delaware River may cause minor flooding on Monday and Tuesday.
—Winter Storm Warning... 5 p.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Tuesday

Middlesex County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday evening. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing. Some sleet may mix with snow early Monday morning.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through Tuesday midday. Additional light accumulations are possible. The wind will lighten up too, although the tidal flooding picture will remain precarious during both of Tuesday's high tide cycles.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 40 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... N/A
—Winter Storm Warning... 5 p.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Tuesday
—Coastal Flood Warning... from 7 a.m. Monday to 5 p.m. Tuesday

Monmouth County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in around dinnertime Sunday, with an inch or two of accumulation possible through Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... After Midnight, snow will change to a wintry mix of sleet and rain. The changeover will last for several hours through about midday Monday.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Precipitation will become heavier, with generally sloppy weather throughout the day. Whether icy or wet, roads will become slippery. For most inland sections, bands of heavy snow are likely through the morning and afternoon hours. Wintry mix along the coast may flip back to snow eventually, causing accumulations to continue. Fierce wind gusts could cause power outages, cause driving/walking difficulties, and just generally make for an unpleasant and blustery day. It will also reduce visibility severely during to blowing snow. Coastal flooding will also become a big concern during both high tide cycles on Monday.
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off around the Tuesday midday or afternoon hours. Additional light accumulations are possible. The wind will lighten up too, although the tidal flooding picture will remain precarious during both of Tuesday's high tide cycles.
—Total Snowfall... 6" (Coast) to 12" (Inland)
—Wind Gusts... 50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 2 to 3 feet of storm surge will cause several rounds of moderate flooding at high tide on Monday and Tuesday. Tide levels may approach major flood stage. Back bays will be particularly vulnerable to water inundation issues, as they'll have little opportunity to fully drain between crests.
—Winter Storm Warning... 1 p.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday
—Coastal Flood Warning... from 7 a.m. Monday to 5 p.m. Tuesday

Morris County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday evening. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Somewhat heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through Tuesday midday. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 40 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... N/A
—Winter Storm Warning... 5 p.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Tuesday

Ocean County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in around dinnertime Sunday, with an inch or two of accumulation possible through Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... After Midnight, snow will change to a wintry mix of sleet and rain. The changeover will last for several hours through about midday Monday.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. For most inland sections, rain and wintry mix will flip back to snow eventually, and accumulations will continue. Precipitation will become heavier, with generally sloppy weather throughout the day. Whether icy or wet, roads will become slippery. Fierce wind gusts could cause power outages, cause driving/walking difficulties, and just generally make for an unpleasant and blustery day. Coastal flooding will also become a big concern during both high tide cycles on Monday.
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Northerly winds on the back side of the nor'easter may cause a flip back to all snow for everyone, even the immediate coast. Additional light accumulations are possible. As the storm system shoves out to sea, precipitation will taper off from west to east around Tuesday midday. The wind will lighten up too, although the tidal flooding picture will remain precarious during both of Tuesday's high tide cycles.
—Total Snowfall... 2" (South Coast) to 10" (Northwest)
—Wind Gusts... 50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 2 to 3 feet of storm surge will cause several rounds of moderate flooding at high tide on Monday and Tuesday. Tide levels may approach major flood stage. Back bays will be particularly vulnerable to water inundation issues, as they'll have little opportunity to fully drain between crests.
—Winter Storm Warning... For inland areas only, from 1 p.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday
—Winter Weather Advisory... For the coast, from 10 a.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday
—Coastal Flood Warning... from 7 a.m. Monday to 5 p.m. Tuesday

Passaic County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday evening. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Somewhat heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through the Tuesday midday to afternoon hours. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 40 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... N/A
—Winter Storm Warning... 7 p.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Tuesday

Salem County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Light snow fills in Sunday afternoon, with an inch or two of accumulation possible by Sunday night.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... After sunset Sunday evening, snow will transition to a wintry mix of sleet and rain. A period of all rain is possible for a time through early Monday morning. If rain hits subfreezing ground, light icing will be possible. Any changeover to wet weather will only last through about late morning Monday, before flipping back to wintry snow/sleet again.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... Any areas of sleet and/or rain will eventually switch back to mainly snow. Moderate to heavy snowfall is likely for most of Monday. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, severely reducing visibility at times. Coastal flooding will also become a concern during both high tide cycles on Monday.
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Storm intensity will generally decrease after Midnight, through Tuesday morning. Light to moderate snow may continue, with additional light accumulations possible. The wind will lighten up too, although the tidal flooding picture will remain precarious during both of Tuesday's high tide cycles.
—Total Snowfall... 3" to 7"
—Wind Gusts... 40-50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 1 to 2 feet of storm along the Delaware Bay and Delaware River may cause several rounds of minor flooding on Monday and Tuesday.
—Winter Storm Warning... 1 p.m. Sunday to 10 a.m. Tuesday

Somerset County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday evening. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing. Some sleet may mix with snow early Monday morning.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through Tuesday midday. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 40 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... N/A
—Winter Storm Warning... 5 p.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Tuesday

Sussex County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday evening. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Somewhat heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through Tuesday midday. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 40 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... N/A
—Winter Storm Warning... 5 p.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Tuesday

Union County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday evening. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Somewhat heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing. Some sleet may mix with snow early Monday morning
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through Tuesday afternoon. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 50 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... 1 to 2 feet of storm surge will cause several rounds of minor flooding along tidal waterways through Monday and early Tuesday.
—Winter Storm Warning... 7 p.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Tuesday
—Coastal Flood Advisory... 9 a.m. to Noon Monday, AND 8 p.m. Monday to 1 a.m. Tuesday

Warren County

—Phase 1 (Sunday Afternoon)... Scattered light snow pushes in Sunday evening. It will start sticking to the cold ground immediately.
—Phase 2 (Sunday PM-Monday AM)... Somewhat heavier bands of snow are possible overnight, with slow accumulation continuing.
—Phase 3 (Monday)... The brunt of the storm. Bands of very heavy snow are expected, with snowfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow, with near-blizzard conditions possible. Snow will continue accumulating quickly throughout the daytime hours, with road conditions getting progressively worse
—Phase 4 (Monday PM-Tuesday)... Moderate to heavy snowfall may continue for a while Monday evening, before things finally dial back after Midnight. As the storm system pulls farther and farther out to sea, snow will slowly taper off through Tuesday midday. Additional light accumulations are possible.
—Total Snowfall... 10" to 18"
—Wind Gusts... 40 mph, blowing out of the northeast, peaking during the day Monday
—Coastal Flooding... N/A
—Winter Storm Warning... 5 p.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Tuesday

Hey, Thanks for Scrolling Down This Far!

I truly hope my forecast has given you enough information to plan ahead and make decisions to keep you and your family safe.

I will be on the radio and on social media Sunday with additional updates and insight. I may or may not publish a weather blog update Sunday afternoon, depending on how the storm continues to develop. I'll definitely be in the weather center all day Monday, with the latest snow, sleet, ice, rain, wind, and coastal flooding updates.

Until then, I offer my usual reminder... Stay smart, and be safe. Enjoy the snow!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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