NJ weather: Drying out for now, one more rainstorm this weekend

The Bottom Line

Across New Jersey, backyards have turned into mud pits, sump pumps are humming along, and roadways are flooded out. It has been quite a soggy week so far, with three 1-inch rain events impacting New Jersey in just five days. Flood Warnings are in effect for numerous NJ waterways, running high and fast — never attempt to drive, walk, or swim through flooded areas.

At this point, I think everyone in New Jersey is ready for drier, brighter skies. And Mother Nature will deliver — for now.

As showers exit the state Thursday, we will be left with a stiff breeze and about 48 hours of dry weather. Then, right in the middle of the weekend, we face one more 12-hour spurt of rain. Next week, the March lion takes a nap — our weather simmers down and turns more seasonable.

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Thursday

Our latest round of rain is wrapping up Thursday morning. As of this writing (6:30 a.m.), we are only left with scattered showers across the northern half of New Jersey. By 8 or 9 a.m., I think we dry out completely, as rain exits to the northeast.

Having said that, a resurgence of a few showers and some patchy drizzle is possible this afternoon through about sunset. So it's not a perfect weather day. Additional rainfall will only amount to a few hundredths of an inch, if that.

You will have to contend with a brisk breeze too, blowing out of the north with top gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Definitely noticeable.

Now let's talk about the good news for Thursday. Skies will brighten up. So much so, in fact, that we could see some peeks of sunshine around midday. I'm still calling the day "mostly cloudy" overall. And temperatures won't budge much — near 50 in the morning, 50 to 55 in the afternoon.

As skies clear Thursday night, the wind will lighten up eventually. (It may not become truly "calm" until just before daybreak Friday.) It is going to get chilly too, our coldest night in almost a week. Look for lows in the 30s.

While a freeze — 32 degrees — is a possibility for North Jersey, I do not think it will be cold enough for long enough to trigger icing.

Friday

We actually squeeze out a dry, pleasant weather day.

Friday will be partly sunny, with high temperatures in the lower 50 to mid 50s. The Shore will be a cool spot, as winds shift to blow off the ocean. But 50s are still above normal for this time of year. (Normal highs 47 to 50 degrees.)

Saturday

Everyone in New Jersey will get wet again this weekend. That is especially important given all the St. Patrick's parades and other outdoor activities planned. The forecast has not changed much — I still think there will be pockets of dry weather.

For the first part of Saturday, skies will turn cloudy with a stiff humid breeze blowing off the ocean. It's going to feel pretty raw, whether or not raindrops are falling. High temperatures will only reach the upper 40s.

I would pinpoint the best chance of rain between 3 p.m. Saturday and 5 a.m. Sunday. So Saturday afternoon events are going to be a close call. The overnight hours will be wet, with pockets of heavy rain again potentially producing an inch-plus of total rainfall possible.

Some models have suggested snow mixing in with the rain late Saturday among the higher elevations of North Jersey. Possible, but not all that impactful.

Sunday

I am optimistic rain showers will taper off across the entire state by sunrise Sunday morning. The rest of the day will feature increasing sunshine and a stiff westerly breeze.

I have seen a couple of forecast models suggest a quick snow shower at some point Sunday afternoon. It's worth mentioning, but I'm leaning toward a miss. Plus, high temperatures should push into the lower 50s.

Skies will progress from clouds to sun throughout Sunday. As long as it's not too breezy and blustery, it should not be a half-bad end to the weekend.

Monday & Beyond

Next week is trending windy. But dry.

Morning freezes are back on the table next week, as low temperatures may descend into the 20s in spots. Especially the usual cold corners of the state — NW NJ and the Pine Barrens.

On Monday, mostly sunny skies will accompany a colder air mass settling in, on a gusty northwest wind. High temperatures will be around the seasonable 50-degree mark.

Despite a continuing breeze, temperatures should warm through midweek. The latest forecast calls for mid 50s on Tuesday, and springlike 60s on Wednesday.

The next storm system to watch arrives next weekend, once again potentially causing issues for any parades and outdoor activities on St. Patrick's Day proper.

Looking even longer-range, guidance has been leaning toward a colder temperature trend as winter turns to spring. Will that result in any late-season wintry weather? We shall see.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.