NJ weather: Fantastic Friday, but rain chances return this weekend
The Bottom Line
Just eleven days to go until the Summer Solstice. The countdown to the change of seasons and the end of the school year is on.
We have a fabulous weather day ahead for Friday. But I'm still less enthusiastic about the weekend, which turns unsettled and occasionally wet.
The latest forecast models have actually shifted a bit. All week, we have been watching two impulses — one for Saturday, one for Sunday. Now it looks like the second storm system — the Sunday one — will be more prominent, producing more widespread rain.
There are no washout days here. But unfortunately, your outdoor activities may be affected.
A fantastic Friday.
I love low humidity. And dew points have once again settled in the 50s. A dry, comfortable air mass.
Morning temperatures in the 50s. Afternoon highs around 80 degrees. Mostly sunny skies and dry weather. Just beautiful all around.
We do have a moderate risk of rip currents posted at the Jersey Shore for one more day. Wave heights will be about 1 to 3 feet. But the ocean continues to warm, with average water temperatures now approaching 70.
Clouds will start to creep in Friday afternoon, increasing even more through Friday night. Overnight low temperatures will be comfortable, around the 60 degree mark.
Spotty showers are likely. Hit or miss stuff.
But it's not going to rain all day. In fact, the forecast has improved such that I don't think it's even going to rain everywhere in NJ.
I think Saturday's highest chance of rain will be from morning through midday. Total rainfall will be no more than a tenth of an inch. There could be a rumble of thunder, but severe weather is unlikely.
Hopefully, we'll see some breaks of sun amongst the cloud cover. High temperatures are tricky to pinpoint, but I think we'll average mid 70s statewide. (Potentially upper 60s north, near 80 southwest.)
Scattered pockets of rain are expected. Sunday's wet weather now looks more widespread than Saturday's.
For the second half of the weekend, model guidance does suggest everyone in NJ will get at least a little bit wet. But it still won't be a rainout of a day.
Best rain chances for Sunday will be early and late. There could be some localized downpours and embedded thunderstorms. But again, I don't think we need to ring alarm bells for flooding or severe weather (wind, hail, tornado).
Other than occasionally wet, Sunday will be mostly cloudy and more humid. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday, averaging mid 70s.
Drying out and warming up.
We'll pick up a southwest breeze, warming temperatures well into the 80s on Monday. 90 degrees is a possibility for inland areas. Skies will be partly sunny, and our weather should be dry. (Some model forecasts have popped a little shower over New Jersey, but that chance looks slim.)
The Extended Forecast
As usual, the forecast behind the 5-Day gets fuzzy. One important element will be intense heat potentially building over the southeastern U.S. (Hundreds as far north as the Carolinas?) I don't think that heat ridge will make it to New Jersey next week. But it could have an impact on our apparent weather.
For now, I'll maintain a pleasant partly to mostly sunny forecast for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It's just a matter of whether highs will be stuck in the 70s (due to an on-shore breeze) or push into the 80s each day.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.