Wednesday NJ weather: Warming up, then cooling down
The Bottom Line
Happy first day of December! On average, this is New Jersey's 3rd coldest month of the year. (Behind only January and February.) It is our 4th wettest and 3rd snowiest month too. Only 20 days to go until the official start of Winter.
As we begin the new month, there is still no "dramatic" weather in New Jersey's forecast, for the next week at least. There will be some temperature swings — from cool to warm, and back again. And there will be some showers — mainly rain, nothing heavy. Our next chance of something bigger will be in the middle of next week.
A definite improvement from Tuesday's grey, snowy, cold weather. It will be cool and quiet.
High temperatures should reach about 45 to 50 degrees, just barely below normal for early December. Morning sun will lead to clouds building through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will stay light, blowing out of the west up to 15 mph tops.
While the daytime hours look dry, it looks like everyone in New Jersey will get wet Wednesday night. A few hours of light rain will sweep through, courtesy of a weak storm system. With a low temperature near 40 degrees, we stay well above freezing. (Actually, temperatures are expected to slowly rise through early Thursday morning.) That's why this is a wet, not wintry forecast. The only chance of mixed snowflakes will be far northwestern New Jersey, in and around Sussex County.
Our one and only mild day of the week. High temps will soar to the 55 to 60 degree range. Not too shabby! Skies will be mostly cloudy. And a batch of rain showers could clip northern New Jersey in the afternoon and evening hours.
The "warmth" is not going to last long, unfortunately. Colder air will start to arrive on a brisk wind late Thursday night.
Right back to cold, blustery weather.
High temperatures on Friday will be very similar to Wednesday: 45 to 50 degrees. But Mother Nature will add a brisk northwesterly wind, potentially gusting to 30 mph. That will certainly make it feel colder — hence, the "blustery" description. At least skies should be bright and sunny. Aside from some flurries, it will also be a dry day.
The Weekend & Beyond
Dry and still chilly. Partly sunny and upper 40s on Saturday. Mostly cloudy and mid 40s on Sunday.
Our third "minor" storm system in a week will sweep through on Monday, with scattered rain showers looking likely. Yes, rain again — a surge of warm air could push temperatures to around 60 degrees.
I am concerned about strong winds as that warm Monday transitions to a much colder Tuesday. Some models do put top gusts in the 40-60 mph range.
Tuesday will be cold again, back in the 40s.
And again, our next opportunity for a significant storm system would be in the middle of next week, around Wednesday. Still too early to confidently call it rain vs. snow vs. nothing.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.