Philadelphia's first snowflakes of the 2022-2023 winter season... are almost here.

In fact, they could definitely be less than a month away. It's snowed in October on quite a few occasions in Philadelphia, and it's certainly possible it could snow by the middle of November.

But how realistic is that? When will we likely see our first snowflakes of the year? I did some digging to try to guess when we'd see our first snowflakes of the year, based on recent history.
I dug into the first date of snow for the past 12 years, and down below I've outlined what we may be able to take away from this history to make a guess.

Actually, there's kind of overwhelming history that makes it clear when Philadelphia will see our first snowflakes for the winter of 2021-2022. Keep scrolling to find out.

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To start, I looked at the date of Philadelphia's first traceable snowfall over the past 12 years in Philadelphia, according to via a report compiled by 

What's The Average Date of The First Snow Fall in Philadelphia, PA Each Winter?

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Winter of 2021 - 2022 - First snowfall: December 27, 2021
Winter of 2020-2021 - First snowfall: December 9, 2020
Winter of 2019-2020 - First snowfall: November 12, 2019

.. Alright. So those dates are kind of all over the place. So I kept digging.

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Winter of 2018 - 2019 - First snowfall: November 15, 2018
Winter of 2017 - 2018 - First snowfall: December 9, 2017
Winter of 2016 - 2017 - First snowfall: November 20, 2016

... These are still kind of scattered, so I kept going through the historical data.

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Winter of 2015 - 2016 - First snowfall: January 12, 2016
Winter of 2014 - 2015 - First snowfall: November 13, 2014
Winter of 2013 - 2014 - First snowfall: November 12, 2013

Wait, that's a bit of a trend there with mid-November. But I kept scrolling.

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Winter of 2012 - 2013 - First snowfall: November 7, 2012
Winter of 2011-2012 - First snowfall: October 29, 2011
Winter of 2010 - 2011 - First snowfall: November 25, 2010

Philadelphia's First Snowflakes should fall in November 2022

Alright. So based on that in the past 12 years, the evidence is pretty overwhelming that we'll see our first snowflakes in the month of November.

Don't believe me? Here's the breakdown by month of when Philadelphia has seen its first snowflakes each year:

  • October - 1 time
  • November - 7 times
  • December - 3 times
  • January - 1 time

Alright. So maybe we're only 15-45 days away from snow in Philly. Buckle up!

Or... of course, it could be one of those years where we wait until January for our first snowflakes.

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