Latest update on Wednesday night snow-rain-wind storm for NJ

The Bottom Line

Within the next 24 hours, a clipper system and associated cold front will pass over New Jersey. This type of storm impacts us several times every year. And usually impacts are minor.

This time around? Right on brand — really not a big deal. We are on the southern fringe of the storm and our air is very dry right now.

Having said that, we will see some snow and rain throughout New Jersey. Light accumulations, slippery spots, and pockets of reduced visibility are all possible. Even more prominently, a cold wind will kick over 40 mph, making for a biting and blustery period of weather.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will keep temperatures in the basement through the start of the weekend. But there is a welcome warmup just around the corner.

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Wednesday

The daytime hours Wednesday will be unseasonably chilly, but generally quiet. The potentially impactful weather will hold off until the late night hours.

Temperatures Wednesday morning are averaging lower 20s across the state. Quite cold. And frosty. You will once again be reaching for the heavy winter coat, and you might have to warm up the car and/or scrape the windshield to start your commute.

Highs will reach about 40 degrees Wednesday afternoon. While we will start with sunshine, clouds will quickly fill in. That cloud cover will make it feel extra cool by midday.

A few snowflakes could clip North Jersey at some point during the afternoon. But the better chance for precipitation will hold off until Wednesday night.

Wednesday Night

Before I talk about storm timing and impacts, let me lay out a few important forecast factors running through my mind here:

1.) Rising temperatures. While North Jersey will be firmly in the 30s — cold enough for an all-snow solution — the southern coast will end up in the 40s by Wednesday morning. That spells rain.

2.) At the same time, keep in mind the temperature about a mile up is way more important here than the temperature at the surface. That is where snowflakes develop.

3.) Our air is very dry right now, with dew points in the 20s. And not expected to rise much. That will lend toward scattered light precipitation, rather than whiteouts and downpours.

—Timing... Prime time for snow and rain showers will be about 8 p.m. Wednesday through 8 a.m. Thursday. Most precipitation will occur during the overnight hours (specifically early Thursday morning). Model guidance is also pushing for one final push of snow/rain at the tail-end of that time window Thursday morning.

—Precipitation Types... I drew a map to illustrate my thinking. Snow to the north and west. Rain to the south and east. For most of New Jersey, I suspect it will be a little bit of both.

—Accumulations... About an inch of snow accumulation is possible in the "all snow zone" to the north and west. Other slushy spots could lead to slippery road conditions through Thursday morning.

—Wind... The other big story here is a strong westerly wind that will kick in after the cold front passes. Top wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected, enough to cause downed tree branches, sporadic power outages, and flight delays. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire state from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. Thursday.

Thursday

Any and all showers will wrap up by mid-morning Thursday, and skies should quickly clear to partial sunshine.

But the wind will continue to blow all day. It is going to be cold. And it is going to bite.

Temperatures will fall as this refreshed cold air mass moves in. I estimate thermometers will start the day near 40 degrees, dropping to around the freezing mark (lower 30s) by sunset. With a wind chill no better than the 20s, of course.

Thursday night, expect lows in the 20s and wind chills in the teens. Brrr!

Friday

Friday will easily be the coldest day of the week. In fact, according to my back-of-the-envelope math, it could be New Jersey's coldest day since January 21st.

Despite sunshine, highs on Friday will only reach the mid 30s. Barely above freezing.

And guess what — the breeze will still be blowing, up to 20 mph. So the biting wind chill will keep the "feels like temperature" in the 20s. Truly a wintry end to the workweek.

Saturday

The first full weekend of December begins with one more unseasonably cold day. Then temperatures will start to moderate.

Highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 30s. Once again, that is typical of the coldest days on the calendar, in late January. With a mix of sun and clouds, at least winds will be lighter.

Sunday & Beyond

Let's talk about a warmup!

Sunday actually reads like a nice, seasonable early December day. It will be a mostly sunny day, with a light southwest breeze. High temperatures will push into the upper 40s — not exactly warm, but that is close to normal for this time of year.

Monday will reach the 50s. And 60s are possible on Tuesday. But both days will bring clouds and chances for rain. Rainfall does not look heavy here, probably on the order of a quarter-inch to half-inch. And let's keep it all in perspective — we need to see a lot more wet, active weather to completely recover from this fall's drought.

The warm air will not last past midweek, as cooler air returns soon enough. There is another storm system showing up in model guidance for late next week, but it looks like another rainmaker for now.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.