The Bottom Line
We'll get one mild day Wednesday. Then a two-day cooldown. Then a three-day warmup. Lather, rinse, repeat. A few shower chances, but nothing big.
In between two little storm systems, we'll find ourselves in a pleasant and mild slice of the atmosphere Wednesday.
After some light showers and sprinkles overnight, clouds are departing early Wednesday morning. And then I think sunshine will dominate the sky, with dry weather for the daytime hours.
We're starting off cool, in the 30s and 40s for most of the state. You might be able to get by with a lighter jacket, rather than heavy "arctic expedition" winter gear. Highs will push into the lower 50s Wednesday afternoon. (A sea breeze will probably keep ocean towns in the 40s.) We'll run a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. And slightly above normal for early March.
Rain will drive through the state, from northwest to southeast, starting late Wednesday evening. The latest model consensus does spit out a wetter situation than it had previously — but I still expect rainfall to be light, brief, and largely unimpactful. There is a chance for some snowflakes to mix in far northern NJ, north of Interstate 80, only. But little to no accumulation is expected.
Overnight low temperatures will mainly dip into the mid 30s.
A cooldown won't be harsh, but it will be noticeable. Temperatures will only climb into the mid 40s Thursday — flipping to a hair below seasonal norms. Thermometers may also start to slide colder sometime in the afternoon too, as colder air flows in. You'll feel the northwesterly breeze gust over 20 mph at times.
It will be a dry day though. With partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Pretty cold. We're back to bundling up, with morning lows in the teens and 20s. Afternoon highs will only reach the mid 30s.
Most of the day will be sunny and dry. Some clouds will roll in late-day.
The Weekend & Beyond
I have been promising you more unsettled, active weather for the first weekend of March. And that still looks to be the case, even though rain chances have decreased a bit.
Skies on Saturday look murky. I'll call it mostly cloudy, optimistically hoping for some pops of sun. There could be some spotty showers around early in the day too. High temperatures will range from the cool mid 40s (north) to the mild mid 50s (south).
Our next big warmup really kicks in Sunday. Temps should soar well into the 60s by the afternoon. However, clouds will continue to win the sky. And a few showers may crop up around midday. (Previous model guidance was quite a bit wetter, so the rainfall spread and intensity is worth watching here.)
Monday could be the warmest day of the week, with 70s a possibility for inland South Jersey. The warmth will come to a crashing end eventually, although I don't think we have a good handle on the timing of that cooldown. Maybe late Monday. Maybe Tuesday. Probably accompanied by a period of widespread, steady rain.
You'll notice one big thing missing from this late winter weather forecast. Significant snow! There's nothing in the forecast for the next 7 days, at least. And the "official" long-range forecasts show above-normal temperatures holding for the next ten days. That makes sense to me, although there will be some ups and downs along the way.
Of course, I am absolutely not "banging the gavel" on winter, as we can get significant snow storms right through mid and even late March. Those opportunities are becoming more and more limited though, with the next chance of substantial snow not coming before next next weekend.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.