NJ weather: Raindrops this weekend, but not a washout like last weekend
The Bottom Line
For over a week now, a coastal storm system has been a major thorn in our side. After last weekend's heavy rain and high winds, we've been stuck under variably cloudy and generally cool conditions this week. Especially at the Shore.
That storm system is now moving over the southeastern U.S. And so our weather is about to become less stagnant and more "continental" (rather than marine-influenced). That means brighter, drier, and warmer.
For now, we still have some generally murky, unsettled weather conditions to work through. You'll notice some humidity in the air. And there is a daily rain chance in the forecast for Friday and Saturday and Sunday and Monday.
However, none of those days will be a total washout. There won't be any strong winds. And as our weather pattern becomes less stagnant, we'll catch a whiff of summerlike warmth by the end of the weekend.
We're starting the day with fog, low clouds, and some spotty drizzle around. The Jersey Shore will end the day almost exactly the same way — another "blah" day there.
Farther inland, I think fog will lift by late morning, with brighter skies through the weekend. The sun may even make a cameo appearance for inland New Jersey by late afternoon.
How much sun you see will directly dictate how warm temperatures get Friday. Under the fog, along the immediate coast, we'll barely hit 60 again. The rest of NJ's Shore counties will be closer to 65. And then interior New Jersey — most of the state — should hit upper 60s to lower 70s.
Rainfall will be minimal. Spotty showers are possible, but rainfall totals will stay below a tenth of an inch.
Cloudy, foggy conditions will reemerge Friday night. Low temperatures will only fall to around 60 degrees — a signal of the humidity that's built into our atmosphere.
To an extent, Saturday will be similar to Friday. At least in terms of temperatures and cloud cover.
Forecast models have actually backed off on the spread of rain on Saturday. I think it's still prudent to include scattered showers in the forecast. Mainly from morning through midday. But once again, rainfall totals will be very limited. And I think it's fair to call Saturday a "mainly dry" day overall.
Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast. And high temperatures will make it to around 70 degrees. Naturally, the Shore will end up cooler with a light breeze blowing out of the southeast.
The brighter, drier day of the weekend.
With periods of sun and clouds, high temperatures will push into the 75 to 80 degree range. Even the Shore (non barrier islands, at least) will probably hit 70+.
There is a chance of a shower at some point Sunday, primarily late-day. But again, a "mainly dry" day.
Warm, humid air really surges ahead of a cold front.
Away from the coast, high temperatures will probably push into the lower 80s. Oo la la, summerlike!
You should see good sunshine for the first half of the day. And then we'll have to watch the western sky for a brief — but potentially potent — round of afternoon thunderstorms.
The Extended Forecast
If all goes well — specifically if Monday's cold frontal passage is "clean" and makes it all the way through NJ — we should settle into some delightful, comfortable weather through the middle of next week.
Tuesday and Wednesday look sunny and breezy, with seasonable highs in the lower to mid 70s.
I will caution that there is a strong signal that heat will build across the southeastern United States next week. And that heat may creep into New Jersey by next weekend. Our first 90s of the year, perhaps?
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.