Friday NJ weather: One-day heat wave, then refreshing and dry
The Bottom Line
There's something for everyone in the forecast through the weekend, as we flip from hot, humid conditions to cool, refreshing weather. Temperatures on Friday will run 10+ degrees above normal for mid-June. Temperatures over the weekend will flip to 10+ degrees below normal.
While there is a thunderstorm chance in Friday's forecast too, it is conditional. If a storm pops up in our hot, humid, juicy atmosphere, it will almost certainly be on the strong side with gusty winds, intense lightning, and heavy rain.
The weekend will be completely dry and humidity falls away. But with a strong northwest breeze on Saturday, there's one big question: Will it be too cool for pool?
A steamy summer day. We'll miss the benchmarks for "dangerous" heat and humidity, but you are definitely going to sweat throughout Friday.
Morning temperatures are averaging 70 degrees statewide — pretty muggy. High temperatures will aim for 90 to 95 degrees. The only places that may avoid 90+ Friday would be 1.) far northwestern NJ, 2.) barrier islands, and 3.) the Delaware Bay shore.
It will be breezy, with a "blast furnace" southwesterly wind blowing up to 20 mph. (Hence, no sea breeze, so even mainland beaches will be warm and toasty.). Early morning clouds will give way to lots of hazy sunshine from late morning through the afternoon.
A cold front will slide through New Jersey Friday afternoon, from northwest to southeast. That's the leading edge of a new, cooler, drier air mass. That difference in density is enough to cause lift, sparking a few showers and thunderstorms. Forecast models show practically bupkis in terms of rain. But the atmosphere will be highly unstable and full of moisture — so if a storm pops, it will become strong to severe quickly. Again, that would be in the afternoon and early evening hours. But again, the vast majority of NJ should stay dry Friday.
As humidity drops, Friday evening will become more and more comfortable. It will be clear and dry overnight, with a low temperature near 60 degrees.
Definitely cool and less humid. In fact, with dew points falling into the 40s, I'd even call it ridiculously dry. Give the air conditioner a break while you can.
Our weather will also stay dry on Saturday, with bright, mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will only reach about 70 degrees — that is 10+ degrees below seasonal normals for mid-June.
The only potential weather nuisance for Saturday will be a strong northwesterly wind, driving the cooldown and dry down. We could see some gusts in the 25-30 mph range. That's pretty blustery. (And that's why I suspect it will feel like an day in early fall, which tends to be a windy season.)
There are a lot of factors here that will affect how Saturday "feels". Yes, temperatures will be below-normal, humidity will be in the basement, and that wind is going to blow, contributing to a cooling effect. But the sunshine will definitely be nice and warm.
Bottom line: Saturday will be beautiful. But not exactly perfect summer-ish, pool day, beach day kind of weather.
Even better than Saturday.
Still sunny. Still dry. Still not humid.
Sunday will be breezy, but winds should turn lighter than Saturday. And that will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 70s by the afternoon. Still below normal, but only by a little bit.
Three days in a row with pleasant, bright weather? Heck yes please.
There will be some fair weather clouds on Monday, but we'll still call it partly sunny. (That's about 50% sky cover.) Temperatures will warm to about 80 degrees.
While I can't completely rule out a late evening shower, I'm keeping my official forecast dry and pleasant for now. A beautiful final day of Spring.
The Extended Forecast
Forecast models still have not settled on a confident solution for the middle of next week. It is going to turn unsettled again, with our next rain chance coming into play on Tuesday. (The summer solstice, by the way.) Passing showers and mostly cloudy skies will have at least some cooling effect on temperatures.
And then Wednesday and Thursday are total coin flips. Yesterday, my numbers edged toward at or below normal temperatures. But now, both the GFS and Euro models are leaning much warmer, in the 80s at least. The warmer solution makes sense, but it's not quite settled yet. Plenty of time to figure it out.
Have a wonderful, safe weekend. And Happy Father's Day to all my fellow NJ dads out there!
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.