NJ coastal storm update: Forecast trends wetter and windier, flooding still #1 concern

The Bottom Line

New Jersey's weather forecast is still heavily influenced by a developing coastal storm — a nor'easter — whose storm track has taken a notable jog to the west, closer to the coast for this weekend. For now, we will enjoy a dry but windswept day across the Garden State. Thursday will feature sun to the north and west and clouds to the south and east, with cool temperatures once again in the 60s. Wind speeds will fall in the "breezy" category for inland portions of the state, but it will be "windy" once again for the Jersey Shore. And we have to ring alarm bells for some serious coastal flooding at high tide. Friday daytime will be windy and dry too. And then for the weekend, we're still facing a pretty uncertain forecast, but it looks like things will turn turn inclement — wet and windy — for both Saturday and Sunday. Periods of rain could become heavy at times. Wind gusts could become destructive, especially along the eastern edge of the state. And the coastal flooding and rough surf will be significant right through the weekend too. Clearing skies, calmer weather, and warming temperatures are ahead for next week.

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General Coastal Storm Thoughts

I am changing up the standard format of this weather blog post to make it easier to follow and more skimmable, given the importance of this coastal storm forecast. Hope it helps!

When I talk to people about this weekend's coastal storm, I'm really keying in on the difference between dangerous weather and inclement weather. In other words, the difference between "batten down the hatches" and "grab the umbrella".

I am leaning toward the latter — a period of yucky, windy, occasionally wet weather that could affect your outdoor plans, but would not be inherently hazardous to life or property. Missing out on the "worst case scenario" sounds good to me. However, things could get dicey with gusty winds and coastal flooding at the Shore. And now, heavy rain could be back in play too.

Let's run through what I know and what I think about the forecast, so you can plan accordingly.

Before the Storm: Thursday & Friday

It is hard to call this a "pre-storm" forecast, because the mechanisms that will help our coastal storm (nor'easter) develop over the next 24 to 48 hours are already causing some rough sky and surf conditions in New Jersey.

The wind continues to blow at the Jersey Shore. We are already seeing wind gusts to about 40 mph east of the Parkway Thursday morning. And they may climb a little higher as the day goes on. A Wind Advisory is posted for the second day in a row, only for coastal areas, as those gusty winds could cause driving difficulties and sporadic power outages.

Farther inland, winds will be much calmer — amounting to "breezy" conditions.

We should see sun and clouds around the state today. The rule of thumb: The farther north and west you go, the brighter the sky will be.

Some showers will try to lap up against the southern coast, but they should not make it very far. So I think we will squeeze out another dry day.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side. Mainly in the 50s in the morning, rising into the mid 60s in the afternoon. That is about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Friday will feature increasing clouds, a continuing brisk wind, and high temperatures on either side of 70 degrees. Again, as long as you don't mind the wind and unseasonably cool temperatures, you're doing just fine so far.

Rising Tides: Coastal Flood Warning

At the Jersey Shore, tidal waterways are already running high. And will continue to do so for another four days. This is a result of pounding northeasterly winds, surging water toward the coast.

Thursday morning's high tide cycle was "only" in the minor flooding category. But Thursday evening's high tide is forecast to reach moderate flood stage, probably on the order of a half-foot higher than Wednesday evening's high tide cycle. And then we face regular moderate level flooding through Friday, Saturday, and Sunday too.

Moderate flood stage is serious, as it does lead to water inundation issues along particularly vulnerable stretches of the Shore. Roads may become impassable and property damage is possible.

There is a chance that portions of the Jersey Shore touch "major" flood stage at some point over the progression of this storm. But all signs are pointing to winds turning more northerly as the storm approaches, parallel to the coastline. That is good news for storm surge holding steady. Fingers crossed the tidal rise does not get any worse — because I still think this is our top concern of this storm through the weekend.

Angry Ocean: Rough Surf

Six foot ocean waves will continue to batter the beaches, raising rip current alarm bells and beach erosion concerns. That will not calm until well after the storm passes.

Stay out of the ocean. Please and thank you.

Blown Away: Wind

The wind will continue to howl at the Jersey Shore, with regular gusts to about 40 mph for now.

Exact gusts over the weekend will depend upon how close the center of the coastal storm system gets to the coast — and there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in that storm track forecast. I think 40-50 mph gusts are a good guess. For now, all models still keep the strongest winds away from New Jersey. That is good news.

Soaked Again: Rain

In previous forecasts, I downplayed the rain, as forecast models largely kept bands of wet weather off-shore. With the recent westward shift in the storm track, I now think everyone in New Jersey will get wet this weekend. In fact, I think there's a chance someone gets very wet with heavy rain back in play, especially from Saturday night into Sunday.

The spread of potential rainfall totals is huge. On the one hand, the NAM model shows southwestern New Jersey only picking up about a quarter-inch of total rainfall between late Friday night and Sunday. However, the European model, which has the center of low pressure directly over New Jersey by the end of the weekend, pumps out 1 to 4+ inches of rainfall for the Garden State.

Obviously the impacts of multiple inches of rain falling from the sky would be much more severe than a piddly quarter-inch. Unfortunately, we have to wait and see how the storm track forecast resolves — then and only then we'll get a better view of totals and timeline here. (This is probably the most uncertain piece of the forecast puzzle overall.)

After the Storm: Improvements Next Week

After an inclement weekend of rain, wind, clouds, and miserably cool temperatures, we should see quick improvements as the storm pulls away early next week.

Thick clouds will linger Monday, and I can't rule out some spotty showers around. High temperatures will probably get stuck in the 60s for one more day.

And then the sun should come out by Sunday, allowing temperatures to rebound into the seasonable 70s. Finally some nice late September weather.

Wednesday might even come close to 80 degrees, for the first time in a week and a half.

Keep in mind, it will take a while for the ocean to fully calm down. So for those hoping for a bit more Local Summer action at the beaches, be patient, vigilant, and sensible.

Our next chance of rain will likely be associated with a cold front in the second half of next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.