Monday NJ weather: Another sultry, steamy, potentially stormy day
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for Central Monmouth and south central Middlesex Counties until 4:45 p.m. a severe thunderstorm was located over West Freehold moving east at 10 mph with 60 mph winds and quarter size hail.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for northwest Camden and west central Burlington counties with 60 mph winds and quarter size hail.
Friendly reminder: It's still summer! We've got a busy 4 days of weather ahead, featuring that classic summertime trio: heat, humidity, and thunderstorms with 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
Just like Sunday, the air will be thick on Monday with widespread 90+ degree temperatures. (NW NJ and the Jersey Shore will probably top out in the upper 80s.) Add in the humidity, of course, and the heat index ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) will reach 95 to 100 degrees across most of the state. The heat will be most stifling in urban areas surrounding New York City and Philadelphia.
In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for parts of northeastern and southwestern New Jersey until 8 p.m. This advisory, cautioning of potential health issues from long exposure to the heat and humidity, covers Bergen, northwestern Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Mercer, Passaic, and Union counties.
Some patchy fog has developed across the Garden State overnight, especially where it poured on Sunday. Additionally, as I type this (5:30 a.m.), I am watching a line of strong thunderstorms charging across central Pennsylvania. Models are fairly consistent in fizzling out that rain completely before it reaches the Garden State. But, just in case, I'll include some clouds and a shower chance in the AM forecast.
By midday, we'll see breaks of blazing sunshine. And then scattered thunderstorms are expected to start popping up after about 2 p.m. Monday afternoon (more like after 4 p.m. south and coast). Will everyone in New Jersey experience a storm Monday? Nope! But if you do, you may very well find some heavy rain, lots of lightning, wind, and/or hail.
Showers will taper by around 9 p.m. Monday evening. The rest of the overnight will be just plain muggy. Low temperatures will only dip into the lower 70s. (Remember, warm overnights make heat waves even more dangerous — you just can't catch a break from the humidity!)
Tuesday will actually end up slightly cooler, with most highs in the mid to upper 80s. (Let's not rule out a few 90s across interior South Jersey.) Skies will be partly sunny. And rain chances should be limited to an isolated shower or thunderstorm.
But then we're right back to the 90-degree mark on Wednesday. In generally, we'll see a mix of clouds and sun overnight. A batch of showers will clip North Jersey Wednesday morning. And then another round of thunderstorms appears likely Wednesday afternoon and evening.
One more steamy, stormy day in the forecast for Thursday. It will be very warm again, with high temps in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. The day will start with mostly cloudy skies and end with a final round of thunderstorms.
Late Thursday into Friday, a new air mass will arrive in New Jersey. It will be much cooler and drier — what a nice breath of fresh air! In fact, high temperatures on Friday may be limited to the 70s, despite abundant sunshine!
It's worth noting that the Euro model shows this cold front stalling just south of NJ. That setup would keep rain in the forecast for southern and coastal parts of the state through Friday too. At the moment, it just adds some uncertainty to the forecast — no worries of hazardous weather necessarily.
If all goes well, the final weekend of August should feature fair weather. But that's highly dependent on how the rest of the week shakes out. Stay tuned!